Adaptation to global warming
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'''Adaptation to global warming''' consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected [[effects of global warming|climate change effects]].<ref> [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/glossary/ar4-wg3.pdf IPCC Glossary Working Group III, p. 809] </ref> This is in distinction to the [[mitigation of global warming]].
According to the former [[Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government]] [[David King (scientist)|David King]], it is very likely that adaptation to global warming is inevitable as "it is unlikely that levels of greenhouse gases can be kept low enough to avoid a projected temperature rise of 2 °C"<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7135836.stm BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Climate change goal 'unreachable'<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>.
==Effects of global warming==
{{main|Effects of global warming}}
The predicted effects for [[the environment]] and for [[civilization|human life]] are numerous and varied. The main effect is an increasing global average temperature. From this flow a variety of resulting claims, namely, rising sea levels, altered patterns of [[agriculture]], increased [[extreme weather]] and [[extreme weather]] events, the expansion of the range of tropical diseases, the opening of new trade routes.
Specific anticipated effects include sea level rise of {{nowrap|110 to 770 mm}} {{nowrap|(0.36 to 2.5 feet)}} between 1990 and 2100, [[Climate change and agriculture|repercussions to agriculture]], [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation]], reductions in the [[ozone layer]], increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, [[Ocean acidification|lowering]] of ocean [[pH]], and the spread of diseases such as [[malaria]] and [[dengue fever]].
A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the [[IPCC Third Assessment Report]] by Working Group II.<ref>{{cite web |title = Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm |publisher = [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] |date = [[2001-02-16]] |accessdate = 2007-03-14}}</ref> The more recent contribution of Working Group II detailing the impacts of global warming for the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]] has been summarized for policymakers.<ref>{{cite web |title = Summary for Policymakers |work = Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report |url = http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf |format = [[Portable Document Format|PDF]] |publisher = [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] |date = [[2007-04-13]] |accessdate = 2007-05-07}}</ref>
==Necessity for adaptation==
===National Academy of Sciences===
One prominent attempt to broach adaptation was a 1991 report by the American National Academy of Sciences, "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming." The National Academy report cautioned that agricultural adaptation will be essential in a greenhouse world.<ref>{{cite book | title=Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base | author=Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.) Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Committee on Science | publisher=[[National Academies Press]] | isbn=0-309-04386-7 | pages=944 | year=1992 | url=http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=1605 | accessdate=2007-04-14}}</ref>
===IPCC Working Group II===
[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] Working Group II argues that mitigation and adaptation should be complementary components of a response strategy to global warming. Their report makes the following observations:
#Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts.
#Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable
#Adaptation, [[sustainable development]], and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing.<ref>[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/010.htm Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
====Adaptation is a necessary strategy====
Because of the current and projected climate disruption precipitated by high levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the industrialized nations, adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts because we cannot be sure that all climate change can be mitigated. And indeed the odds are quite high that in the long run more warming is inevitable, given the geologic evidence of the past's most similar glacial / interglacial cycle which happened about 400,000 years ago. That similarity being determined by degree of the elliptic shape of the earth's orbit and how close the Sun is when the most land, that is the northern hemisphere, is being warmed by it.
Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages. Extremes, variability, and rates of change are all key features in addressing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, not simply changes in average climate conditions. {{Fact|date=February 2007}}
Human and natural systems will to some degree adapt autonomously to climate change. {{Fact|date=February 2007}} Planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation, though there are more options and greater possibility for offering incentives in the case of adaptation of human systems than in the case of adaptation to protect natural systems.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/010.htm |title=Adaptation is a Necessary Strategy at All Scales to Complement Climate Change Mitigation Efforts |work=Climate Change 2001:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |publisher=grida.no}}</ref>
====Disadvantaged nations====
The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with climate change generally depends on such factors as wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, management capabilities, and sociopolitical will. There is potential for more advantaged and less advantaged countries to enhance and/or acquire adaptive capabilities. Populations and communities are highly variable in their endowments with these attributes, and disadvantaged countries are weakest in this regard. As a result, they have lesser capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change damages, just as they are more vulnerable to other stresses. This condition is most extreme among the most disadvantaged people.<ref>[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/010.htm#28 Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
====Mutual reinforcement====
Many communities and regions that are vulnerable to climate change are also under pressure from forces such as population growth, resource depletion, and poverty. Policies that lessen pressures on resources, improve management of environmental risks, and increase the welfare of the poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to climate and other stresses. Inclusion of climatic risks in the design and implementation of national and international development initiatives such as polar cities can promote equity and development that is more sustainable and that reduces vulnerability to climate change.<ref>[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/010.htm#29 Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
===National Center for Policy Analysis===
A study by the American National Center for Policy Analysis argues that adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation. Their report makes the following observations:
#By 2085, the contribution of (unmitigated) warming to the above listed problems is generally smaller than other factors unrelated to climate change.
#More important, these risks would be lowered much more effectively and economically by reducing current and future vulnerability to climate change rather than through its mitigation.
#Finally, adaptation would help developing countries cope with major problems now, and through 2085 and beyond, whereas generations would pass before anything less than draconian mitigation would have a discernible effect.<ref>[http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st278/index.html#a NCPA | Study #278, Living with Global Warming<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
===The Kyoto Protocol===
Under the [[Kyoto Protocol]], the United States would have agreed to cut greenhouse emissions by about 400 million tons per year by 2012. In 2003 the world net output of [[anthropogenic]] carbon dioxide, the chief [[greenhouse gas]], was about 25 [[1000000000 (number)|billion]] metric tons annually.<ref>[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007 - Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Section<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
Even with the Kyoto Protocol, global emissions by 2015 will rise to perhaps 9 billion tons{{Fact|date=February 2007}}, 50 percent higher than today's level. Such nearly-inevitable carbon buildup ought to tell us is that if greenhouse theory is right, a warming world is now unavoidable: at least through the next generation, until a renewable-fuels energy economy can be created.<ref>http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/library/earthmatters/fall1998/pages/page4.html</ref>
==Criteria for assessing responses==
James Titus identifies the following criteria<ref>[http://users.erols.com/jtitus/JAPA/adapt.html Strategies for Adaptation to Global Warming<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> that policy makers should use in assessing responses to global warming:
* Economic Efficiency: Will the initiative yield benefits substantially greater than if the resources were applied elsewhere?
* Flexibility: Is the strategy reasonable for the entire range of possible changes in temperatures, precipitation, and sea level?
* Urgency: Would the strategy be successful if implementation were delayed ten or twenty years?
* Low Cost: Does the strategy require minimal resources?
* Equity: Does the strategy unfairly benefit some at the expense of other regions, generations, or economic classes?
* Institutional feasibility: Is the strategy acceptable to the public? Can it be implemented with existing institutions under existing laws?
* Unique or Critical Resources: Would the strategy decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or cultural resources?
* Health and Safety: Would the proposed strategy increase or decrease the risk of disease or injury?
* Consistency: Does the policy support other national state, community, or private goals?
* Private v. Public Sector: Does the strategy minimize governmental interference with decisions best made by the private sector?
==Adaptation mechanisms==
Scheraga and Grambsch<ref>http://www.epa.gov/eims/global/clim_res.pdf</ref> identify 9 fundamental principles to be considered when designing adaptation policy.
# The effects of climate change vary by region.
# The effects of climate change may vary across demographic groups.
# Climate change poses both risks and opportunities.
# The effects of climate change must be considered in the context of multiple stressors and factors, which may be as important to the design of adaptive responses as the sensitivity of the change.
# Adaptation comes at a cost.
# Adaptive responses vary in effectiveness, as demonstrated by current efforts to cope with climate variability.
# The systemic nature of climate impacts complicates the development of adaptation policy.
# Maladaptation can result in negative effects that are as serious as the climate-induced effects that are being avoided.
# Many opportunities for adaptation make sense whether or not the effects of climate change are realized.
==Methods of adaptation==
Examples of adaptation include defending against [[sea level rise|rising sea levels]] through better flood defences, and changing patterns of land use like avoiding more vulnerable areas for housing.
===Agricultural production===
A significant effect of global climate change, especially global rainfall patterns may be upon agriculture.<ref name=cep-jennings>
{{cite journal
| last = Jennings
| first = Paul A.
| year = 2008
| month = Feb
| title = Dealing with Climate Change at the Local Level
| journal = Chemical Engineering Progress
| volume = 104
| issue = 2
| pages = 40–44
| publisher = [[American Institute of Chemical Engineers]]
| url = http://www.aiche.org/uploadedFiles/CEP/Issues/2008-02/020840.pdf
| format = pdf
| accessdate = 2008-02-29
}}</ref> Extended drought can cause the failure of small and marginal farms with resultant economic, political and social disruption.
However, such events have previously occurred in human history independent of global climate change. In recent decades, global trade has created distribution networks capable of delivering surplus food to where it is needed, thus reducing local impact.<ref name=cep-jennings /> There are also several ways to adapt to and minimize the disruptive effects of rainfall patterns.
==== Drought tolerant crop varieties ====
Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify [[rainfall]], [[evaporation]], [[runoff]], and [[soil moisture]] storage. Changes in total [[seasonal precipitation]] or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of [[moisture stress]] during [[flowering]], [[pollination]], and [[grain-filling]] is harmful to most crops and particularly so to [[corn]], [[soybeans]], and [[wheat]]. Increased [[evaporation]] from the soil and accelerated [[transpiration]] in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress. As a result, there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater [[drought tolerance]].
==== More spending on irrigation ====
The [[demand for water]] for [[irrigation]] is projected to rise in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture--already the largest consumer of water resources in [[Semi-arid climate|semi-arid regions]]--and urban as well as industrial users. Falling [[Water table|water tables]] and the resulting increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the practice of irrigation more expensive, particularly when with drier conditions more water will be required per acre.
===Rainwater storage===
One strategy involves adapting urban areas to increasingly severe storms by increasing [[rainwater storage]] (domestic [[water butt]]s, unpaved gardens etc) and increasing the capacity of [[stormwater]] systems (and also separating stormwater from [[blackwater (waste)|blackwater]], so that overflows in peak periods do not contaminate rivers).
According to [[English Nature]], gardeners can help mitigate the effects of climate change by providing habitats for the most threatened species, and/or saving water by changing gardens to use plants which require less.<ref>[http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1795001,00.html Gardeners can slow climate change | UK News | The Observer<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
===Weather control===
Russian and American scientists have in the past tried to control the weather, for example by [[cloud seeding|seeding clouds]] with chemicals to try to produce rain when and where it is needed. A new method being developed involves replicating the [[urban heat island]] effect, where cities are slightly hotter than the countryside because they are darker and absorb more heat. This creates 28% more rain 20-40 miles downwind from cities compared to upwind.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/Story/0,2763,1516375,00.html Spain goes hi-tech to beat drought | Special reports | Guardian Unlimited<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> On the timescale of several decades, new [[weather control]] techniques may become feasible which would allow control of extreme weather such as hurricanes.<ref>[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/29/tech/main652303.shtml Sapping A Hurricane's Strength, Research Under Way, But Actual Applications Still Decades Away - CBS News<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
===Damming glacial lakes===
[[Glacial Lake Outburst Flood]]s may become a bigger concern due to the retreat of glaciers, leaving behind numerous lakes that are impounded by often weak [[terminal moraine]] dams. In the past, the sudden failure of these dams has resulted in localized property damage, injury and deaths. [[Glacial lake]]s in danger of bursting can have their [[moraine]]s replaced with concrete dams (which may also provide hydroelectric power).<ref>[http://www.animana.org/tab2/22glacialmeltdown.shtml animana.org<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
===Assisting disadvantaged nations===
In 2000, there was a proposal made at the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#COP-6 "bis," Bonn, Germany|Sixth Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change]] that called for the creation of an Adaptation Fund of $1 billion per year for developing countries, especially the least developed and small [[island state|island states]], to enable them to combat the consequences of climate change.
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==References==
{{reflist}}
==Sources==
===Relevant IPCC reports===
The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]] produced two separate reports:
"Mitigation" [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/004.htm] and "Adaptation and Vulnerability"[http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/006.htm].
===Relevant United States sources ===
US Global Change Research Program: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.php
US National Assessment -- Preparing for a Changing Climate report:
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm
California Regional Assessment: Preparing for Climate Change: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for California (not on Federal site) 2002: http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/pubs/CA_Report.pdf
The U.S. Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) published two reports containing detailed assessments of mitigation and adaptation strategies. "Changing by Degrees" investigates options for controlling emissions of carbon dioxide, the most troublesome anthropogenic greenhouse gas (OTA 1991). "Preparing for an Uncertain Climate" examines how managed natural resource systems--such as water, agriculture, and forests--might adapt to changing environmental conditions brought about by global warming (OTA 1993).
* "Changing by Degrees" U.S. Office of Technology Assessment 1991
* "Preparing for an Uncertain Climate" U.S. Office of Technology Assessment 1993
===Other Government sources===
Several countries have taken a lead in climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Their web sites contain reports, strategies, and tools which other countries can customize to their own situation.
* The United Kingdom's Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP): http://www.ukcip.org.uk/
* Australia: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/
===Other relevant sources===
* The World Bank has worked with developing countries to support adaptation planning since 1999. It has also analyzed how to mainstream adaptation planning into its loan and grant programs. This page offers many publications to download: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCC/0,,contentMDK:20484574%7EmenuPK:1172760%7EpagePK:148956%7EpiPK:216618%7EtheSitePK:407864,00.html
* Indigo Development offers a comprehensive page of links to government and research web sites on climate adaptation: http://www.indigodev.com/climadaptlinks.html
In addition to government and United Nations reports, an extensive research literature assesses options for response to global warming. Much of this literature addresses the potential economic costs associated with different strategies.
* Oxfam has issued a report detailing the need for high emissions countries to support adaptation in developing countries: Adapting to climate change, What’s needed in poor countries, and who should pay Oxfam Briefing Paper 104 http://www.oxfam.org/en/files/bp104_climate_change_0705.pdf/download
* "Economic Approaches to Greenhouse Warming" provides a summary of Yale economist William Nordhaus' ideas (1991). Nordhaus, who has written widely on the global warming issue, questions the motivation for countries to pursue relatively costly measures for responding to global warming given current scientific uncertainty about the problem's magnitude and estimates that potential economic impacts may not be that high, particularly for developed economies.
Economist William Cline offers an opposing view, arguing that potential economic costs of unabated global warming could be very high. In the monograph, "Global Warming: The Economic Stakes", Cline (1992) assesses the potential cost of damages from global warming and the cost of efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.
* "Global Warming: The Economic Stakes", Cline (1992)
* "Economic Approaches to Greenhouse Warming" William Nordhaus (1991)
* "Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States" Pew Center on Global Climate Change, June 2004. [http://www.pewclimate.org/document.cfm?documentID=319]
* "Living with Global Warming" National Center for Policy Analysis [http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st278/]
* "Adaptation to Global Warming" James Titus [http://users.erols.com/jtitus/JAPA/adapt.html]
* "Climate's Long-Lost Twin" Richard Monastersky [http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20000226/bob10.asp]
* "Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change" Profile Books, December 2003 ISBN 1-86197-795-6
* "Economics of Carbon Sequestration" USDA Economic Research Service [http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/tb1909/]
* "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability" USDA Economic Research Service [http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aer740/]
* "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations" USDA Economic Research Service [http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aer703/]
* "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming." National Academy of Sciences, 1991.
* "Water Allocation in a Changing Climate: Institutions and Adaptation" Springer Netherlands, ISSN 0165-0009 (Paper) 1573-1480 (Online) Volume 35, Number 2, February 1997. pp. 157 - 177.
* "Risks, opportunities, and adaptation to climate change" Joel D. Scheraga, Anne E. Grambsch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. [http://www.epa.gov/eims/global/clim_res.pdf]
* McMichael ''et al.'' (2003). [http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index.html ''Climate Change and Human Health – Risk and Responses'']. WHO, UNEP, WMO, Geneva. ISBN 92-4-159081-5.
* Müller, B. (2002) [http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/EV31.pdf Equity in Climate Change. The Great Divide]. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Oxford, UK ([http://www.wolfson.ox.ac.uk/~mueller/OCP/The%20Great%20Divide%20-%20Executive%20Summary.pdf Executive Summary])
* House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, 2nd Report of Session 2005-06, ''The Economics of Climate Change'' Volume I: Report [http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12i.pdf]
* Rivington M, Matthews KB, Buchan K and Miller D (2005) [http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LADSS/papers.html?2005 "An integrated assessment approach to investigate options for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the farm-scale"], NJF Seminar 380, Odense, Denmark, 7-8 November 2005.
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[[Category:Action on climate change]]
[[Category:Global warming]]
[[hu:Alkalmazkodás a globális felmelegedéshez]]
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