Civil war in Iraq 2372429 223390652 2008-07-03T21:41:41Z CommonsDelinker 2304267 Removing "Army.mil-2007-02-14-113227.jpg", it has been deleted from Commons by [[commons:User:Rama|Rama]] because: Duplicated file. {{FixHTML|beg}} {{Infobox Military Conflict |conflict=Civil war/sectarian violence in Iraq |partof=[[Iraq War]] and [[Iraqi insurgency]] |image= |caption=<small>An Iraqi policeman waves to a family while conducting a joint Iraqi-American patrol in [[Samarra]]</small> |date='''Beginnings''' 2004 - 2006 <br> '''Escalation''' [[Al-Askari Mosque bombing (2006)|February 2006]], [[Iraq Spring Fighting of 2008|March 2008]]<ref>[http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=d7c84f0e-bcf0-4310-b73a-2def8a2bdf21&k=76125 Reuters: April Iraq's deadliest month since last August]</ref> |place=[[Iraq]] (mostly central, including [[Baghdad]]) |result=2003 - present<ref> *[[International Crisis Group]]: [http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5286&l=1 "Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge"]. Released on February 7, 2008. *[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080101faessay87106-p10/vali-nasr-ray-takeyh/the-costs-of-containing-iran.html The Costs of Containing Iran]. Nasr, Vali and Takeyh, Ray (Jan/Feb 2008).<blockquote>to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq and prevent the civil war there from engulfing the Middle East.</blockquote> *[[International Crisis Group]]: [http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5415&l=1 "Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape"]. Released on April 30, 2008.</ref> *[[Casualties of the Iraq War|Tens to hundreds of thousands of Iraqis killed]]<ref>[http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ Iraq Body Count] Retrieved 18 September 2007.</ref><ref>[http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2006/burnham_iraq_2006.html 2006 Study of Iraq Mortality]</ref><ref>[http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/TABLES.pdf "Opinion Research Business (ORB) poll: More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered"]. September 2007. Opinion Research Business.</ref> *~[[Refugees of Iraq|4 million displaced]] |combatant1='''Sunni factions:'''<br>[[Image:Flag of the Ba'ath Party.png|22px]] [[Iraqi insurgency#Ba'athists|Ba'athists]]<br><!-- Image with inadequate rationale removed: [[Image:1920 Revolution Brigade.png|20px]] -->[[1920 Revolution Brigade]]<br>[[Iraqi insurgency#Nationalists|Nationalists]]<br>[[Arab tribes in Iraq|Sunni tribes]]<br>[[Image:Flag of The Islamic State of Iraq.jpg|22px]] [[Islamic State of Iraq]]<br>[[Image:Flag of al-Qaeda.svg|22px]] [[al-Qaeda in Iraq]]<br><!-- Image with inadequate rationale removed: [[Image:Ansar al-sunnah.jpg|25px]] -->[[Ansar al-Sunna]]<br>[[Iraqi insurgency#Sunni Islamists|Other Sunni groups]] |combatant2='''Shia factions:<br>'''[[Mahdi Army]]<br>[[Image:Coat of arms of Iraq.svg|10px]] [[Badr Corps]]<br>[[Soldiers of Heaven]]<br>Rogue elements among the Iraqi security forces<br>[[Arab tribes in Iraq|Shia tribes]]<br>[[Private militias in Iraq|Other militias]] |combatant3='''Public security:<br>'''{{Flagicon|Iraq}} [[Iraqi security forces]]<br>{{Flagicon|United States}} [[United States]]<br>{{Flagicon|United Kingdom}} [[United Kingdom]]<br>[[Image:MultinationalForce-IraqDUI.jpg|15px]] [[Multinational Force in Iraq|Other coalition forces]]<br>[[Awakening movements in Iraq]] (soon disbanding)<ref name="AwakeDisband">[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20071222/iraq/ Iraq Government Vows to Disband Sunnis]</ref> |commander1=[[Image:Flag of al-Qaeda.svg|22px]] [[Abu Musab al-Zarqawi]]†<br>[[Image:Flag of al-Qaeda.svg|22px]] [[Abu Ayyub al-Masri]]<br>[[Image:IAILogo.gif|25px]] [[Ishmael Jubouri]]<br>[[Image:Flag of the Ba'ath Party.png|22px]] [[Izzat Ibrahim ad-Douri]] |commander2=[[Muqtada al-Sadr]]<br>[[Hadi Al-Amiri]]<br>[[Abu Deraa]]<br>[[Dia Abdul Zahra Kadim]]†<br>[[Ahmed Hassani al-Yemeni]] |commander3={{flagicon|Iraq}} [[Jalal Talabani]]<br>{{flagicon|Iraq}} [[Nouri al-Maliki]]<br>{{flagicon|United States}} [[David Petraeus]] |strength1='''Sunni Insurgents:''' 70,000<ref name=brookings>The Brookings Institution [http://www3.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq] [[1 October]] [[2007]]</ref><br>'''Foreign Mujahedeen:''' 1,300<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/16/AR2006111601509.html Violence in Iraq Called Increasingly Complex - washingtonpost.com<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |strength2='''Mahdi Army:''' 60,000<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/10/AR2007011002581_pf.html Intensified Combat on Streets Likely - washingtonpost.com<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref><br>'''Badr Organisation:''' 4,000-10,000<br>'''Soldiers of Heaven:''' 1,000<ref>"Using that self aggrandizing, self appointed title, al Hassan built up a force of a thousand men" [http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1249368,00.html The Hidden Imam's Dream] - Sky News, [[January 30]] [[2007]]</ref> |strength3='''[[Multinational Force Iraq|Coalition]]'''<br />~177,000 current<br />'''[[Private military company|Contractors]]'''<br />~182,000<ref name=LATcontractors> [http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-na-private4jul04,0,5419234,full.story "Private contractors outnumber U.S. troops in Iraq"]. By T. Christian Miller. ''[[Los Angeles Times]].'' July 4, 2007.</ref><ref name=contractorsguardian> [http://www.deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,660198347,00.html "Contractor deaths add up in Iraq"]. By Michelle Roberts. ''[[Deseret Morning News]].'' Feb. 24, 2007.</ref><br /> '''Iraqi Security Forces'''<br />407,000 (180,000 [[New Iraqi Army|Army]] and 227,000 [[Iraqi Police|Police]])<ref>Collins, C. (August 19, 2007) [http://www.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/story/19049.html "U.S. says Iranians train Iraqi insurgents,"] ''McClatchy Newspapers''</ref><br>'''[[Awakening movements in Iraq|Awakening Council]] militias'''<br>65,000-80,000<ref>[http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,159357,00.html A Dark Side to Iraq 'Awakening' Groups<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |casualties1= |casualties2= |casualties3= |}} {{FixHTML|mid}} {{Campaignbox Iraq War}} {{FixHTML|end}} Following the [[United States|U.S.]]-launched [[2003 invasion of Iraq]], the situation deteriorated, and by 2007, the conflict between Iraqi [[Sunni Islam|Sunni]] and [[Shi'a Islam|Shi'a]] factions was described by the [[National Intelligence Estimate]] as having elements of a '''[[civil war]]'''.<ref>{{cite journal|title=Elements of 'civil war' in Iraq|quote=A US intelligence assessment on Iraq says "civil war" accurately describes certain aspects of the conflict, including intense sectarian violence.|date=2007-02-02|url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/6324767.stm|journal=[[BBC News]]}}</ref> In a [[January 10]], [[2007]] address to the American people, President [[George W. Bush]] stated that "80% of Iraq's '''sectarian violence''' occurs within {{convert|30|mi|km}} of the capital. This violence is splitting [[Baghdad]] into sectarian [[enclave]]s, and shaking the confidence of all Iraqis."<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html |title=President's Address to the Nation |publisher=The White House |date=2007-01-10 }}</ref> Two polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war;<ref name=IraqPoll1>[http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/09/28/poll.iraq/index.html Poll: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Iraq in civil war]</ref><ref name=IraqPoll2>[http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/dec06iraq.pdf 12/06 CBS: 85% of Americans now characterize the situation in Iraq as a Civil War]</ref> however, a similar poll of Iraqis conducted in 2007 found that 61% did not believe that they were in a civil war.<ref name="TimesPoll" /> In October 2006, the [[United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees|Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees]] (UNHCR) and the [[Politics of Iraq|Iraqi government]] estimated that more than 365,000 Iraqis had been displaced since the 2006 [[al-Askari Mosque bombing (2006)|bombing]] of the [[al-Askari Mosque]], bringing the total number of Iraqi [[refugee]]s to more than 1.6 million.<ref>[http://www.unhcr.org/news/NEWS/452fa9954.html Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees]</ref> By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million (~16% of the population). The number of refugees estimated abroad was 2 million (a number close to CIA projections<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html "CIA World Factbook: Iraq"]</ref>) and the number of internally displaced people was 2.7 million.<ref name=UNHCR-04084> [http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/iraq?page=briefing&id=4816ef534 UNHCR - Iraq: Latest return survey shows few intending to go home soon]. Published April 29, 2008. Retrieved May 20, 2008.</ref> The [[International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement|Red Cross]] states that Iraq's humanitarian situation remains among the most critical in the world, with millions of Iraqis forced to rely on insufficient and poor-quality water sources.<ref>[http://www.icrc.org/web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/iraq-report-170308/$file/ICRC-Iraq-report-0308-eng.pdf Iraq: No let-up in the humanitarian crisis]</ref> According to the [[Failed States Index]], produced by [[Foreign Policy]] magazine and the [[Fund for Peace]], [[Iraq]] has remained one of the world's five most unstable states in since 2005.<ref> *{{cite web | url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=103&Itemid=325| title= Failed States list 2005 | publisher = Fund for Peace | downloaded=2008-06-24 }} *{{cite web | url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=104&Itemid=324| title= Failed States list 2006 | publisher = Fund for Peace | downloaded=2008-06-24 }} *{{cite web | url=http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=229&Itemid=366 | title= Failed States list 2007 | publisher = Fund for Peace | downloaded=2007-06-19 }} *{{cite web | url=http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350&page=1|title=Failed States list 2008|publisher = Fund for Peace|downloaded=2008-06-24}}</ref> A poll of top U.S. foreign policy experts conducted in 2007 showed that over the next 10 years, just 3% of experts believed the U.S. would be able to rebuild Iraq into a beacon of democracy and 58% of experts believed that Sunni-Shiite tensions would dramatically increase in the Middle East. <ref>[http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070820/pl_nm/security_usa_bush_dc;_ylt=Au59xROu4wsVd5s8u2fll42s0NUE U.S. foreign policy experts oppose surge]</ref> <ref>[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/TI3_Final_Results.doc Foreign Policy: Terrorism Survey III (Final Results)]</ref> In June 2008, the [[United States Department of Defense|U.S. Department of Defense]] reported that "the security, political and economic trends in Iraq continue to be positive; however, they remain fragile, reversible and uneven."<ref>[http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Master_16_June_08_%20FINAL_SIGNED%20.pdf " US Department of Defense (June 2008): Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq]</ref> In July 2008, the [[Government Accountability Office|audit arm of the U.S. Congress]] recommended that the U.S. Government should "develop an updated strategy for Iraq that defines U.S. goals and objectives after July 2008 and addresses the long-term goal of achieving an Iraq that can govern, defend, and sustain itself".<ref>[http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08837.pdf US Government Accountability Office (June 2008): Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq]</ref> Steven Simon, a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the [[Council on Foreign Relations]], wrote in May 2008 that "the recent short-term gains" had "come at the expense of the long-term goal of a stable, unitary Iraq."<ref>[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87305/steven-simon/the-price-of-the-surge.html Council on Foreign Relations: The Price of the Surge]</ref> ==Ethno-sectarian composition== The Sunni insurgency has used sectarian violence to capitalize on Sunni fears of the Shi'a majority and the Shi'a armed militias have shown a zeal for vigilante justice. However, there are other sectarian divisions of the [[population]] that lay in nearly a dozen distinct groups. These groups are subdivided into countless smaller factions. The sectarian divisions can be divided into several ''main'' [[ideology|ideological]] or [[ethnicity|ethnic]] strands: ''Ethnic groups'': *[[Arab]] : ~ 75 - 80% : The bulk of the Iraqi population that is divided along Islamic religious lines. *[[Kurdish people|Kurdish]] ~ 15 - 20% : ''[[De facto]]'' independent administration (mostly secular Sunnis, small Shi'ite, Yazidi, and other elements, but with a heavily secular government). *[[Assyrian people|Assyrian]] ~ 3% : This group has a minor role in the current situation. *[[Iraqi Turkmen|Turkoman]] ~ 2% : This group has a minor role in the current situation, although [[Turkey]] is concerned about their overall treatment in Iraq. ''Religions'': *[[Muslim]] ~ 97% : This is the primary religion in Iraq and serves as one of the primary sectarian distinctions. **[[Shia Islam|Shi'ite]] ~ 60 - 65% : Mainly Arabs with a very small [[minority]] of [[Feyli Kurds|Kurds]] and [[Iraqi Turkmen|Turkoman]] . **[[Sunni Islam|Sunni]] ~ 32 -37% : Split almost even with Kurds and Arabs. It is important to understand that Sunni Islam is not a monolithic force, and historic divisions between Sunni schools of religious law persist, usually running along ethnic and tribal lines. *[[Christian]],[[Mandaeans]] and [[Yazidi]] ~ 3% : These groups have a minor role in the current situation. The Arab-Sunni faction and the Arab-Shi'ite are the main two participants in the violence, but conflicts within a single group have occurred. [[Iran]], it has been conjectured, would assist the Shiites. Sunni-Shiite violence in Iraq, with Iran helping the Shi'ite and Arab nations helping the Sunni, is a possibility.<ref name="buchanan">[[Patrick Buchanan|Buchanan, Patrick]], "''[http://www.tracypress.com/voice/2005-08-01-buchanan.php Is America’s war in Iraq winding up?]''". [[August 4]], [[2005]]</ref>{{Verify source|date=March 2008}} A senior American official has said that during a meeting between Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] and [[Saudi Arabia]]'s [[King Abdullah]] in November 2006, the king said that if U.S. forces pulled out of Iraq, the Saudis would be forced to support the Sunni minority.<ref name="saudisuni">[[CNN]] "''[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/13/saudi.sunnis/index.html Official: Saudis to back Sunnis if U.S. leaves Iraq?]''".[[December 12]]. 2006</ref> The Kurds are caught between the two religious groups, but as they are an ethnicity opposed to religious movement, they are often at odds with the Sunni Arabs that were settled in Iraqi [[Kurdistan]] by [[Saddam Hussein|Saddam]]'s Arabization policy. Kurds also sympathise with Shi'ites as Saddam's Sunni regime persecuted both communities.<ref name="smh">"''[http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/18/1069027122315.html?oneclick=true US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war]''". [[November 19]], [[2003]]</ref> Blurring this cohesion, though, are division of social, economic, political and geographic identities. ==Groups known and alleged to take part in the sectarian violence== {{main|Al-Qaeda in Iraq|Iraqi insurgency|Private militias in Iraq}} A multitude of groups form the Iraqi Insurgency which arose in a piecemeal fashion as a reaction to local events and notably the realisation of the U.S. military’s inability to control Iraq.<ref name="Dodge">Toby Dodge (2007). ‘The Causes of US Failure in Iraq’. Survival. Vol. 49, No. 1</ref> Since 2005 the insurgent forces have largely merged around several main factions, including the [[Islamic Army in Iraq]] and [[Ansar al-Sunna]].<ref>International Crisis Group. ‘In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency’. Middle East Report No. 50, 15th February 2006</ref> Religious justification has been used to support the political actions of these groups as well as a marked adherence to [[Salafism]] which brands those against the [[jihad]] as non believers. This approach has played a role in the rise of sectarian violence.<ref>Roel Meijer, ‘The Sunni Resistance and the Political Process’ in Markus Bouillion, David Malone and Ben Rowsell (eds). Preventing Another Generation of Conflict. USA: Lynne Rienner Publishers</ref> The U.S. military also believe that between 5-10% of insurgent forces are non-Iraqi Arabs.<ref name="Dodge"/> Independent Shi'ite militias have identified themselves around sectarian ideology and possess various levels of influence and power. There is a strand of militia who were founded in exile and returned to Iraq only after the toppling of Saddam Hussein such as the [[Badr Organization]]. There are also militias created since the state collapse, the largest and most uniform of which is the [[Mahdi Army]] established by [[Moqtada al-Sadr]] and believed to have around 50,000 fighters.<ref name="Dodge"/> Although their participation in the religious terrorism is not universal, the individual members of these militias are known to take part in the attacks on the Sunni and other non-Shia civilians. The Kurdish militias of the [[Kurdistan Democratic Party]] (KDP) and the [[Patriotic Union of Kurdistan]] (PUK) are the most [[discipline]]d. ==Conflict and tactics== {{Iraq War}}<!-- Please leave template here as it renders much better on the page --> ===Non-military targets=== Some analysts suspect that the aim of these attacks is to show chaos and sectarian discord. The attacks on non-military and civilian targets began in earnest in August 2003. Iraqi casualties have increased since then.<ref>[http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/pr_2004/burnham_iraq.html John Hopkins School of Puclic Health: Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Dramatically After Invasion]</ref><ref>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120977505566564207.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ''Wall Street Journal'': The Truth About Iraq's Casualty Count]</ref> ===Bomb and mortar attacks=== The bomb attacks aimed at civilians usually target crowded places such as marketplaces and mosques in the Shi'ite cities and districts.<ref>[http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hm9Cg5d3rObVK5RiQ9Soznjs8DKA ''AFP'': Bomb attack kills more than 40 near Iraq Shiite shrine]</ref><ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/06/iraq.main/index.html ''CNN'': Pair of bombs kills 53 in Baghdad, officials say]</ref> The bombings, which are sometimes co-ordinated, often inflict extreme casualties. For example, the [[23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings]] killed at least 215 people and injured hundreds more in the [[Sadr City]] district of Baghdad, sparking reprisal attacks, or the [[3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing]] which killed at least 135 and injured more than 300, while the co-ordinated [[2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings]] (including [[car bomb]]s, [[suicide bomber]]s and [[Mortar (weapon)|mortar]], [[grenade]] and [[rocket]] attacks) killed at least 178 people and injured at least 500. ====Suicide bombings==== Since August 2003, [[Suicide bombing|suicide car bombs]] have been increasingly used as weapons by Sunni militants, primarily [[al-Qaeda]] extremists. The car bombs, known in the military as vehicle-borne [[improvised explosive device]]s (IEDs), have emerged as one of their most effective weapons, directed not only against civilian targets but also against the mainly-Shi'ite Iraqi police stations and recruiting centers. These vehicle IEDs are often driven by the extremists from the foreign Muslim countries with a history of [[militancy]], such as Saudi Arabia, [[Algeria]], [[Egypt]], and [[Pakistan]].{{Fact|date=October 2007}} ===Death squads=== [[Death squad]]-style killings in Iraq have taken place in a variety of ways. [[Kidnapping]], followed by often extreme [[torture]] (such as drilling holes in peoples feet with [[drill]]s[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article737635.ece]) and [[summary execution|execution-style killings]], sometimes public (in some cases, [[beheading]]s), have emerged as another tactic. In some cases, tapes of the execution are distributed for [[propaganda]] purposes. The bodies are usually dumped on a roadside or in other places, several at a time. There were also several relatively large-scale [[Wiktionary:massacre|massacres]], like the [[Hay al Jihad massacre]] in which some 40 Sunnis were killed in a response to the car bombing which killed a dozen of Shi'ites. The death squads are often disgruntled Shi'ites, including members of the security forces, who kill Sunnis to avenge the consequences of the insurgency against American occupation and the Shi'ite-dominated government.[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4719252.stm] ===Attacks and occupations on places of worship=== On [[February 22]] [[2006]], the highly [[provocation|provocative]] [[al-Askari Mosque bombing (2006)|explosion took place at the al-Askari Mosque]] in the Iraqi city of [[Samarra]], one of the holiest sites in Shi'a Islam, believed to have been caused by a bomb planted by [[al-Qaeda in Iraq]]. Although no injuries occurred in the blast, the mosque was severely damaged and the bombing resulted in violence over the following days. Over 100 dead bodies with bullet holes were found on the next day, and at least 165 people are thought to have been killed. In the aftermath of this attack the U.S. military calculated that the average homicide rate in Baghdad tripled from 11 to 33 deaths per day.<ref name="Dodge"/> Dozens of Iraqi mosques were since attacked or taken-over by the sectarian terrorists. For example, a Sunni mosque was burnt in the southern Iraqi town of Haswa on [[March 25]] [[2007]], in the revenge for the destruction of a Shia mosque in the town the previous day.<ref>[http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FF36EE64-B20A-40D5-A78D-08AD54C80135.htm Al Jazeera English - News - Iraq Mosque Burnt In Revenge Attack<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> In several cases, Christian churches were also attacked by the extremists. Later, [[2007 Al-Askari Mosque bombing|another al-Askari bombing]] took place in June 2007. Iraq's Christian minority also has become a target because of conflicting theological ideas.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3529364.stm BBC Analysis: Iraq's Christians under attack]</ref> ===Sectarian desertions=== Some Iraqi service members have [[desertion|deserted]] the military or the police and others have refused to serve in hostile areas.<ref name="desertion">[http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/iraq_10-27.html Former CIA Officer Says Iraq Can Be Stabilized By Trained Security Forces] ''PBS''</ref> For example, some members of one sect have refused to serve in neighborhoods dominated by other sects.<ref name="desertion" /> The ethnic Kurdish soldiers from northern Iraq, who are mostly Sunnis but not Arabs, were also reported to be deserting the army to avoid the civil strife in Baghdad, a conflict they consider someone else's problem.<ref>[http://www.aina.org/news/20070119191354.htm Kurdish Iraqi Soldiers Are Deserting to Avoid the Conflict in Baghdad<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> ==Timeline== {{Main|2003 in Iraq|2004 in Iraq|2005 in Iraq|2006 in Iraq|2007 in Iraq|2008 in Iraq}} For more information on events in a specific year, see the associated timeline page. [[Image:Iraqcivcas.png‎|thumb|350px|Civilian deaths attributable to insurgent or military action in Iraq, and also to increased criminal violence. For the period between January 2006 and February 2008 as rendered by the [[Congressional Research Service]] for the [[United States Department of Defense|Department of Defense]]. Many of these type of civilian deaths are not reported, and this image only reports from 2006 on. Other methods of estimating civilian deaths come up with much higher numbers. See also: [[Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003]].]] ==Potential effects of the sectarian attacks== An article in ''[[The Washington Post]]'', published on [[August 20]], [[2006]],<ref name="byman">{{cite news |publisher =The Washington Post |title = A Domino Theory for the New Mideast: What Happens When Iraq Runneth Over" |date=2006-08-20|author = Daniel L. Byman, and Kenneth M. Pollack }}</ref> reported that a full-blown Iraq civil war might result in the death of hundreds of thousands of people and turn millions of people into refugees. The ethnic unrest could also spill over to the rest of the region, with "copycat secession attempts" in neighbouring countries, such as [[Kuwait]], [[Jordan]], [[Syria]], and [[Lebanon]], as these countries have similar ethnic diversity. Citing the history of [[Taliban]] and [[Rwandan Patriotic Front]] as examples, the report warned that refugee camps often become a sanctuary and recruiting ground for militias, thus spreading the conflict to a wider area. Civil war could lead to increased radicalism and terrorism: [[Hezbollah]] and the [[Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam]] were formed as a result of civil wars. Based on lessons learned from the Lebanese and Bosnian civil wars, the report predicted that if an all-out civil war were to break out in Iraq, the U.S.-led coalition would require 450,000 troops to quash it. An article in ''[[The International Herald Tribune]]'', published on [[November 26]], [[2006]],<ref name="wong">{{cite news |publisher =The International Herald Tribune |title = Scholars agree Iraq meets definition of 'civil war' |date=2006-11-26 |author = Edward Wong }}</ref> paraphrased a report from a group of American professors at [[Stanford University]] that the insurgency in Iraq amounted to the classic definition of a [[civil war]]. ==Growth in refugee flight== {{main|Refugees of Iraq}} By 2008, the UNHCR raised the estimate of refugees to a total of about 4.7 million, with 2 million displaced internally and 2.7 million displaced externally.<ref name=UNHCR-04084 /> In April 2006 the Ministry of Displacement and Migration estimated that "nearly 70,000 displaced Iraqis, especially from the capital, are living in deteriorating conditions,” due to ongoing sectarian violence.<ref name="GS-SectVio">[http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2006/04/iraq-060417-irin01.htm IRAQ: Sectarian violence continues to spur displacement]</ref> Roughly 40% of Iraq's [[middle class]] is believed to have fled, the U.N. said. Most are fleeing systematic persecution and have no desire to return.<ref>[http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/01/16/MNG2MNJBIS1.DTL 40% of middle class believed to have fled crumbling nation]</ref> Refugees are mired in [[poverty]] as they are generally barred from working in their host countries.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6293807.stm Doors closing on fleeing Iraqis]</ref><ref>[http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/23/MNGPCR4S601.DTL&feed=rss.news Displaced Iraqis running out of cash, and prices are rising]</ref> A May 25, 2007 article notes that in the past seven months only 69 people from Iraq have been granted [[Immigration to the United States#Asylum for refugees|refugee status]] in the [[United States]].<ref>Ann McFeatters: [http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/317322_mcfeatters27.html Iraq refugees find no refuge in America]. ''[[Seattle Post-Intelligencer]]'' May 25, 2007</ref> ==Use of "civil war" label== [[Assistant party leaders of the United States Senate|Deputy leader]] of the [[United States Senate]], [[Richard Durbin|Dick Durbin]], referred to "this civil war in Iraq"<ref name="dick_durbin">Susan Milligan, "''[http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2007/01/11/democrats_say_they_will_force_lawmakers_to_vote_on_increase/ Democrats say they will force lawmakers to vote on increase]''". [[July 11]], [[2006]]</ref> in a criticism of George W. Bush's [[January 10]], [[2007]], President's Address to the Nation.<ref>[http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html President's Address to the Nation<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> An unclassified summary of the 90-page January 2007 [[National Intelligence Estimate]], titled ''Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead'', states the following regarding the use of the term "civil war": :The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf |title=Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead (PDF) |publisher=National Intelligence Estimate |date=January 2007}}</ref> A poll of over 5,000 Iraqi nationals found that 27% of polled Iraqi residents agreed that Iraq was in a civil war, while 61% thought Iraq was not.<ref name="TimesPoll">{{cite news |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece |title=Iraqis: life is getting better |publisher= The Times |date=2007-03-18}}[]</ref> Two similar polls of Americans conducted in 2006 found that between 65% to 85% believed Iraq was in a civil war.<ref name=IraqPoll1 /><ref name=IraqPoll2 /> Retired [[United States Army]] General [[Barry McCaffrey]] issued a report on [[March 26]], [[2007]], after a trip and analysis of the situation in Iraq. The report labeled the current situation a "low-grade civil war."<ref>http://www.defensetech.org/archives/Iraq%20After%20action.pdf</ref> From page 3 of the report: :"Iraq is ripped by a low-grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighter (500+)--and a couple thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians...The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings." ==See also== *[[2 March 2004 Iraq Ashura bombings]] *[[23 November 2006 Sadr City bombings]] *[[22 January 2007 Baghdad bombings]] *[[3 February 2007 Baghdad market bombing]] *[[Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003]] *[[Command responsibility]] *[[Ethnic cleansing]] *[[Ethnic conflict]] *[[Hay al Jihad massacre]] *[[Historical Shi'a-Sunni relations]] *[[Iraqi insurgency]] *[[List of civil wars]] *[[Post-invasion Iraq, 2003-2006]] *[[Sectarianism]] *[[Religion in Iraq]] *[[Religious war]] ==Bibliography== *[[Iraq Study Group]], ''[[Iraq Study Group Report|The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward - A New Approach]]'' (2006) *[[Nir Rosen]], ''In the Belly of the Green Bird: The Triumph of the Martyrs in Iraq'' (2006) ==Films== *''[[Iraq in Fragments]],'' documentary (2006) {{portal|Iraq War|Flag_of Iraq.svg}} {{portal|Iraq|Flag of Iraq.svg}} ==References== {{reflist}} <!-- Dead note "Jaber": Jaber, Hala, "''[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1687910,00.html Allawi: this is the start of civil war]''". The Sunday Times - World, [[July 10]], [[2005]]. --> <!-- Dead note "Webb": Webb, Justin, "''[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3599909.stm US senators warn of Iraq civil war]''". BBC, [[April 5]], [[2004]]. --> <!-- Dead note "DemocracyNow": "''[http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/08/03/1419259 Bush's Exit Plan: Fomenting Civil War in Iraq?]''". [[Democracy Now]], [[August 3]], [[2005]]. --> <!-- Dead note "RMN": "''[http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:jZ3bFzpUGP8J:www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/cda/article_print/0,1983,DRMN_38_3322208_ARTICLE-DETAIL-PRINT,00.html+%22the+majority+of+iraqis+want+peace%22&start=9&hl=en&lr=&strip=1 Everyday life in Iraq improving bit by bit]''". Rocky Mountain News, [[November 11]], [[2004]]. (Google cache) --> <!-- Dead note "kidnap": "''[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4312861.stm Swedish hostage in plea to Pope]"'' BBC News, [[March 2]], [[2005]] --> </div> ==External links== *Refugees Report "''[http://www.refugeesinternational.org/content/article/detail/9679 The Iraqi Displacement Crisis]''" March 2008. *United States Dept. of Homeland Security [http://www.dhs.gov/xnews/releases/pr_1205327590498.shtm Fact Sheet on admitting Iraqi refugees to the United States] March 2008. *Sami Ramadani interview "''[http://www.isj.org.uk/index.php4?id=299&issue=114 Iraq is not a civil war]''" Spring 2007. *Taheri, Amir. "''[http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/20385 There is no Civil War in Iraq], [[Gulf News]], [[December 6]], [[2006]]. *Phillips, David L., "''[http://www.dcexaminer.com/articles/2005/07/21/opinion/op-ed/67oped20phillips.txt Federalism can prevent Iraq civil war]''", [[July 20]], [[2005]]. *Hider, James, "''[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-1698308,00.html Weekend of slaughter propels Iraq towards all-out civil war]''", [[July 18]], [[2005]]. *Ramadani, Sami, "''[http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=8255 Occupation and Civil War]''", UK Guardian, [[July 8]], [[2005]]. *Phelps, Timothy M., "''[http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/051205C.shtml Experts: Iraq Verges on Civil War]''". Newsday, [[12 May]], [[2005]]. *Strobel, Warren P., and Jonathan S. Landay, "''[http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0122-01.htm CIA Officers Warn of Iraq Civil War, Contradicting Bush's Optimism]''", Knight-Ridder, [[January 22]], [[2004]]. *"''[http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/18/1069027122315.html?oneclick=true US exit may lead to Iraqi civil war]''", [[November 19]], [[2003]]. *Dunnigan, James, "''[http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20030404.asp The Coming Iraqi Civil War]''", [[April 4]], [[2003]] {{War on Terrorism}} {{Asia in topic|Terrorism in}} {{Armed Iraqi Groups in the Iraq War and the Iraq Civil War}} {{Iraq War Coalition troop deployment}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Iraq}} [[Category:2004 in Iraq]] [[Category:2005 in Iraq]] [[Category:2006 in Iraq]] [[Category:2007 in Iraq]] [[Category:2008 in Iraq]] [[Category:2003 Iraq conflict]] [[Category:Al-Qaeda in Iraq]] [[Category:Iraqi insurgency]] [[Category:Islamic terrorism]] [[Category:Occupation of Iraq]] [[Category:Politics of Iraq]] [[Category:Religion and violence]] [[Category:Terrorism in Iraq]] [[Category:Civil wars involving the states and peoples of Asia]] [[Category:Civil wars of the Modern era]] [[Category:Religion-based civil wars]] [[Category:Wars involving Iraq]] [[ar:الأزمة الطائفية العراقية في ظل الاحتلال الأمريكي]] [[fr:Attentats après l'invasion de l'Irak]] [[tr:Irak İç Savaşı]]