Clive Granger 480148 221525468 2008-06-24T21:58:23Z Aetheling 34410 /* Trivia */ Delete pointless trivium {{Infobox_Scientist | name = Clive W. J. Granger | image = | caption = | birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1934|9|4|mf=y}} | birth_place = [[Swansea]] | death_date = | death_place = | residence = [[Image:Flag of the United States.svg|20px|]] [[United States|U.S.]] | nationality = [[Image:Flag of Wales 2.svg|20px|]] [[Wales|Welsh]] | field = [[Economist]] | work_institution = [[Erasmus University Rotterdam]]<br />[[University of California, San Diego]] (1974-2003)<br/>[[University of Nottingham]] (1956-73) | alma_mater = [[University of Nottingham]] | doctoral_advisor = [[Harry Pitt]] | doctoral_students = [[Mark Watson (economist)|Mark Watson]] | known_for = [[Cointegration]]</br>[[Granger causality]]</br>[[Fractional integration]] | prizes = [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]] (2003) | religion = | footnotes = }} '''Sir Clive William John Granger''' (born [[September 4]], [[1934]]) is a [[Wales|Welsh]] [[economist]], and Professor Emeritus at the [[University of California, San Diego]]. Along with [[Robert F. Engle]] of [[New York University]] he shared the [[2003]] [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]]. ==Biography== ===Early life=== Clive Granger was born in 1934 in [[Swansea]], [[Wales]], as the son of Edward John Granger and Evelyn Granger.<ref name=nobelbio>Clive Granger's autobiography on the Nobel Foundation website [http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2003/granger-autobio.html]</ref> The next year his parents (who were both English) decided to move to [[Lincoln, Lincolnshire|Lincoln]] in [[England]]. During the [[World War II|war]], Granger moved with his mother to [[Cambridge]], where he went to the local primary school. He started highschool in Cambridge, but continued in [[Nottingham]], where his family moved after the war. During school, Granger showed talent for mathematics, developing a strong interest in applied mathematics. After high school Granger enrolled at the [[University of Nottingham]] for a joint degree in economics and mathematics, but switched to full mathematics in the second year. After receiving his [[Bachelor of Arts|B.A.]] in 1955, he remained at the University of Nottingham for a [[Doctor of Philosophy|Ph.D.]] in [[statistics]] under the supervision of [[Harry Pitt]]. In 1956, at only 23, Granger was appointed a junior lecturer in statistics at the University. As he was interested mainly in applied statistics and economics, Granger chose as the topic of his doctoral thesis [[Time series|time series analysis]], a field in which he felt that relatively little work had been done at the time.<ref name=nobelbio/> In 1959 he obtained his Ph.D. with a thesis on "Testing for [[Stationary process|Non-stationarity]]". ===Academic life=== Granger spent the next academic year, 1959-60, at [[Princeton University]] under a Harkness Fellowship of the Commonwealth Fund. He had been invited to Princeton by [[Oskar Morgenstern]] to participate in his Econometric Research Project. Here, Granger worked with [[Michio Hatanaka]] as assistants to [[John Tukey]] in a project to use [[Fourier analysis]] on economic data. At the end of the year in Princeton, he got married and spent the honeymoon in a trip across US. Granger published the research results, together with Hatanaka, in a 1964 book on ''Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series'' (Tukey had encouraged them to write the book themselves, as he was not going to publish the research results.)<ref name=nobelbio/> He also wrote in 1963 an article on "The typical spectral shape of an economic variable" which appeared in 1966 in ''[[Econometrica]]''. Both the book and the article proved extremely influential in the adoption of the new methods. Granger also became a full professor at the [[University of Nottingham]]. In a 1969 paper in ''Econometrica'', Granger also introduced his concept of [[Granger causality]]. After reading, in 1968, a pre-print copy of the time series book by [[George Box]] and [[Gwilym Jenkins]],<ref>George Box and Gwilym Jenkins (1970). ''Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control'', Holden-Day, Inc.</ref> Granger became interested in forecasting. For the next years he worked on this subject with his post-doctoral student, [[Paul Newbold]], and they wrote a book which became a standard reference in time series forecasting (published in 1977). Using simulations, Granger and Newbold also wrote the famous 1974 paper on [[Spurious relationship|spurious regression]] which lead to a general reevaluation of previous empirical work in economics and to the econometric methodology.<ref name=etinterview>"The ET Interview: Professor Clive Granger" by Peter C.B. Phillips, ''Econometric Theory'' 13, 1997, pp. 253-303</ref> In all, Clive Granger spent 22 years at the University of Nottingham. In 2005, the building that houses the Economics and Geography Departments was renamed the ''Sir Clive Granger Building'' in honour of his Nobel achievement. In 1974 Granger moved to the [[University of California at San Diego]]. In 1975 he participated in a [[US Bureau of Census]] committee chaired by [[Arnold Zellner]] on [[seasonal adjustment]]. At UCSD, Granger continued his research on time series, collaborating closely with Nobel prize co-recipient [[Robert Engle]] (whom he helped bring to UCSD), [[Roselyn Joyeux]] (on [[fractional integration]]), [[Timo Teräsvirta]] (on [[nonlinear time series]]) and others. Working with Robert Engle, he developed the concept of [[cointegration]], introduced in a 1987 joint paper in ''Econometrica'', for which he was awarded the Nobel prize in 2003. Granger also supervised many Ph.D. students, among which [[Mark Watson (economist)|Mark Watson]] (co-advisor with Robert Engle).<ref>"Interview" by Philipp Harms, [http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/newsletter/July03.pdf ''Study Center Gerzensee Newsletter'', July 2003]</ref> In the later years, Granger also used the time series methods to analyze data outside economics. Thus, he worked on a project concerned with the [[Amazon Rainforest]] and built a model to forecast deforestation. The results were published in a 2002 book.<ref>Granger, C. W. J., Andersen L., Reis E., Weinhold D., and Wunder S. (2002). ''The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon''. Cambridge University Press</ref> Granger retired from UCSD in 2003 as a [[Professor Emeritus]]. He is a Visiting Eminent Scholar of the [[University of Melbourne]] and [[Canterbury University]]. Sir Clive Granger is married to Lady Patricia, and they have two children, Mark William John and Claire Amanda Jane.<ref name=nobelbio/> ===Awards and Honors=== In 2003, Clive Granger and his close collaborator Robert Engle were jointly awarded the [[Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences]]. Her Majesty [[Queen Elizabeth II]] of England has awarded him the dignity of [[Knight Bachelor]] in the New Year’s Honours in 2005.<ref>[http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/sir_clive.shtml "Canterbury Distinguished Professor Clive Granger awarded a Knighthood in New Year’s Honours"], University of Canterbury news, 2006</ref> Granger is a Fellow of the [[Econometric Society]] since 1972 and a Corresponding Fellow of the [[British Academy]] since 2002. He was voted in 2004 in the [[100 Welsh Heroes]]. ==Scientific activity== Clive Granger’s great breakthroughs concerned the relationships between different financial or economic variables over time. He showed that traditional statistical methods could be misleading if applied to variables that tend to wander over time without returning to some long-run resting point. He also demonstrated that many variables display similar long-run patterns that can be exploited in statistical analysis. Combining several of these variables can create a joint variable that returns to a resting point, allowing traditional methods to be used. For example, economic forces such as uneven technological progress cause consumption and income to grow over time, but other economic forces, such as constraints on budgets, make them follow similar paths (“Cointegration”). This discovery not only led to significant breakthroughs in statistics and macroeconomic forecasting, but also to an important reconciliation between macroeconomic theory and data. Clive Granger also developed a formal statistical notion of causality based on which variables help to predict other variables. His discovery is widely used and is commonly known as [[Granger causality]]. ==Trivia== *While at UCSD he was famously photographed astride a powerful motorbike with the photo eventually captioned "Rebel without a causal model". *The Geographics and Economics building at the University of Nottingham is named after him. ==Selected works== *{{cite journal | author=Granger, C. W. J. | title=The typical spectral shape of an economic variable | journal=[[Econometrica]]| year=1966 | volume=34 | pages=150–161 | doi=10.2307/1909859}} *{{cite journal | author=Granger, C. W. J. | title=Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods | journal=Econometrica| year=1969 | volume=37 | pages=424–438 | doi=10.2307/1912791}} *{{cite journal | author=Granger, C. W. J. and Bates, J. | title=The combination of forecasts | journal=Operations Research Quarterly | year=1969 | volume=20 | pages=451–468}} *{{cite book | author=Granger, C. W. J. and Hatanaka, M. | title=Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series | year=1964 | publisher = [[Princeton University Press]], Princeton, NJ| id = ISBN 0-691-04177-6}} *{{cite journal | author=Granger, C. W. J. and Joyeux, R. | title=An introduction to long-memory time series models and fractional differencing | journal=Journal of Time Series Analysis | year=1980 | volume=1 | pages=15–30 | doi=10.1111/j.1467-9892.1980.tb00297.x}} *{{cite journal | author=Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold, P. | title=Spurious regressions in econometrics| journal=Journal of Econometrics| year=1974 | volume=2 | pages=111–120 | doi=10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7}} *{{cite book | author=Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold, P. | title=Forecasting Economic Time Series | year=1977 | publisher = Academic Press; second edition: 1986| id = }} *{{cite journal | author=Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. | title=Co-integration and error-correction: Representation, estimation and testing | journal=Econometrica| year=1987 | volume=55 | pages=251–276 | doi=10.2307/1913236}} ==Notes and references== <references/> ==External links== * [http://www.econ.ucsd.edu/~cgranger/ Home page] on UCSD website * [http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2003/index.html Winner page] on the official [[Nobel Foundation]] website * [http://www.genealogy.math.ndsu.nodak.edu/id.php?id=42695 Entry at the Mathematics Genealogy Project] {{Nobel Prize in Economics Laureates 2001-2025}} <!-- Metadata: see [[Wikipedia:Persondata]] --> {{Persondata |NAME= Granger, Clive William John |ALTERNATIVE NAMES= |SHORT DESCRIPTION= [[Wales|Welsh]] Economist |DATE OF BIRTH= [[September 4]], [[1934]] |PLACE OF BIRTH= [[Swansea]] |DATE OF DEATH= |PLACE OF DEATH= }} {{DEFAULTSORT:Granger, Clive}} [[Category:1934 births]] [[Category:Academics of the University of Nottingham]] [[Category:Alumni of the University of Nottingham]] [[Category:Nobel laureates in Economics]] [[Category:Economists]] [[Category:Time series econometricians]] [[Category:Living people]] [[Category:People from Swansea]] [[Category:Knights Bachelor]] [[Category:Fellows of the Econometric Society]] [[Category:University of California, San Diego faculty]] [[ar:كليف غرانجر]] [[ca:Clive Granger]] [[cs:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[de:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[es:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[fr:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[id:Clive Granger]] [[it:Clive Granger]] [[ja:クライヴ・グレンジャー]] [[pl:Clive Granger]] [[pt:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[ro:Clive Granger]] [[ru:Грэнджер, Клайв]] [[fi:Clive W. J. Granger]] [[sv:Clive W.J. Granger]] [[zh:克莱夫·格兰杰]]