Future
163103
225825102
2008-07-15T16:01:06Z
Xenocidic
1795359
Reverted edits by [[Special:Contributions/Pink!Teen|Pink!Teen]] ([[User talk:Pink!Teen|talk]]) to last version by 128.187.0.178
{{morereferences|date=June 2008}}
{{otheruses}}
[[Image:A Christmas Carol - The Last of the Spirits.jpg|right|175px|thumb|The [[Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come]] shows [[Ebenezer Scrooge|Scrooge]] his future in [[Charles Dickens|Dickens']] ''[[A Christmas Carol]]''.]]
The '''future''' is commonly understood to contain all events that have yet to occur. It is the opposite of the [[past]], and is the [[time]] after the present. Organized efforts to [[prediction|predict]] or [[forecasting|forecast]] the future may have derived from observations by early man of heavenly objects. In physics, which uses a linear conception of [[time]], the future is the portion of the projected time line that is anticipated to occur. In [[special relativity]] the future is considered as [[absolute future]] or the future [[light cone]]. In physics, time is considered to be a fourth [[dimension]].
In the [[philosophy of time]], presentism is the [[belief]] that only the present [[existence|exists]] and the future and the [[past]] are [[reality|unreal]]. Religions consider the future when they address issues such as [[karma]], [[afterlife|life after death]], and [[eschatology|eschatologies]] that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. Religious figures have claimed to see into the future, such as [[prophet]]s and [[divination|diviners]].
Future studies or [[futurology]] is the science, art and practice of postulating possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
In art and culture, the future was explored in several art movements and genres. The [[futurism]] [[art]] [[Art movement|movement]] at the beginning of the 20th century explored every medium of art, including [[painting]], [[sculpture]], [[poetry]], [[theatre]], [[music]], [[architecture]] and even [[gastronomy]]. Futurists had passionate loathing of ideas from the past, especially political and artistic traditions. Instead, they espoused a love of [[speed]], [[technology]], and [[violence]]. Futuristic music involved homage to, inclusion of, or imitation of machines. Futurism expanded to encompass other artistic domains and ultimately included industrial design, textiles, and architecture. Science fiction writer [[Robert A. Heinlein]] defines sci-fi as " realistic speculation about possible future events, based solidly on adequate knowledge of the real world, past and present, and on a thorough understanding of the nature and significance of [[Scientific method|the scientific method]]."<ref name="heinlein def">{{cite conference
|title=Science Fiction: Its Nature, Faults and Virtues
|booktitle=The Science Fiction Novel: Imagination and Social Criticism
|publisher=Advent Publishers
|last=Heinlein
|first=Robert A.
|coauthors=Cyril Kornbluth, Alfred Bester, and Robert Bloch
|date=1959
|location=University of Chicago
}}</ref> More generally, [[science fiction]] is a broad genre of [[fiction]] that often involves speculations based on current or future [[science]] or [[technology]].
{{TOC_left}}
{{clear}}
==Forecasting==
{{Main|Forecasting}}
Organized efforts to [[prediction|predict]] or [[forecasting|forecast]] the future may have derived from observations by early man of heavenly objects, which changed position in predictable patterns. The practice of [[astrology]], today considered [[pseudoscience]], evolved from the human desire to forecast the future. Much of [[physical science]] can be read as an attempt to make quantitative and objective predictions about events. [[Forecasting]] is the process of [[estimation]] in unknown situations. Due to the element of the unknown, [[risk]] and [[uncertainty]] are central to forecasting and prediction. Statistical [[forecasting]] is the process of [[estimation]] in unknown situations. It can refer to estimation of [[time series]], [[cross-sectional data|cross-sectional]] or [[longitudinal study|longitudinal]] data.
[[Prediction]] is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of [[time series]], [[cross-sectional data|cross-sectional]] or [[longitudinal study|longitudinal]] data. [[Econometric]] forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast.Judgemental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgements, opinions and [[probability]] estimates, as in the case of the [[Delphi method]], [[scenario building]], and [[simulation]]s. Forecasting is applied in many areas, including [[weather forecasting]], [[earthquake prediction]],[[transport planning]], and [[labour market]] planning.
Despite the development of [[cognition|cognitive]] instruments for the comprehension of future, the [[stochastic process|stochastic]] nature of many natural and social processes has made precise forecasting of the future elusive. Modern efforts such as [[future studies]] attempt to predict social trends, while more ancient practices, such as [[weather forecasting]], have benefited from [[Scientific modelling|scientific]] and [[causal model]]ling.
===Future studies===
Future studies or [[futurology]] is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions.
Futures studies does not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate and be robust to possible future events, are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the models such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.
==Physics==
{{expand|section|date=May 2008}}[[Image:World line2.svg|250px|right|thumb|A visualisation of the future [[light cone]] (at top), the present, and the past light cone in 2D space.]]
In [[classical physics]] the future is just a half of the timeline. In [[special relativity]] the future is considered as [[absolute future]] or the future [[light cone]]. In physics, time is considered to be a fourth dimension. Physicists argue that space-time can be understood as a sort of stretchy fabric that can bend due to forces such as gravity.
While a person can move backwards or forwards in the three spatial dimensions, many physicists argue you are only able to move forward in time. <ref>http://www.livescience.com/technology/070307_time_travel.html</ref>
The physicist who advised the makers of the fictional time-travel film ''[[Déjà Vu]]'' claims that a person could hypothetically travel into the future if they had a spaceship that could travel at the speed of light. After a voyage on this ship, if a person returned to Earth, millions of years would have passed in Earth time. <ref>http://www.livescience.com/technology/070307_time_travel.html</ref>
Some physicists claim that by using a [[wormhole]] to connect two regions of space-time a person could theoretically do time travel. Physicist [[Michio Kaku]] points out that to power this hypothetical time machine and "punch a hole into the fabric of space-time", it would require the energy of a star. Another theory is that a person could do time travel with [[cosmic string]]s, which are hypothetical "narrow tubes of energy stretched across the entire length of the ever-expanding universe." <ref>http://www.livescience.com/technology/070307_time_travel.html</ref>
{{clear}}
==Philosophy==
{{expand|section|date=May 2008}}
In the [[philosophy of time]], presentism is the [[belief]] that only the present [[existence|exists]] and the future and the [[past]] are [[reality|unreal]]. Past and future "entities" are to be construed as [[logic]]al constructions or [[fictionalism|fictions]]. The opposite of presentism is '[[Eternalism (philosophy of time)|eternalism]]', which is the belief that things in the past and things yet to come exist [[eternity|eternally]]. One other view (that has not been held by very many philosophers) is sometimes called the '[[Growing block universe|growing block]]' [[theory]] of time, which is a theory that takes the past and present to exist but the future to be nonexistent.<ref>{{cite book| last=Broad| first= C.D.| title= Scientific Thought| location=New York| publisher=Harcourt, Brace and Co.| year=1923| url=http://www.ditext.com/broad/st/st-con.html}}</ref>
Presentism is [[compatibility|compatible]] with [[Galilean relativity]], in which time is independent of space but is probably incompatible with [[Lorentz]]ian/[[Einstein]]ian relativity in conjunction with certain other philosophical [[thesis|theses]] which many find uncontroversial. [[Augustine of Hippo|Saint Augustine]] [[proposition|proposed]] that the present is a knife edge between the past and the future and could not contain any [[extension|extended]] period of time.
Contrary to Saint Augustine, some philosophers propose that conscious experience is extended in time. For instance, [[William James]] said that time is "the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible".{{Fact|date=February 2008}} Augustine proposed that God is outside of time and present for all times, in [[eternity]]. Other early philosophers who were presentists include the [[Buddhism|Buddhists]] (in the tradition of [[Indian Buddhism]]). A leading scholar from the modern era on [[Buddhist philosophy]] is [[Theodor Ippolitovich Stcherbatsky|Stcherbatsky]], who has written extensively on Buddhist presentism: "Everything past is unreal, everything future is unreal, everything imagined, absent, mental... is unreal... Ultimately real is only the present moment of physical [[efficiency]] [i.e., [[causation]]]."<ref>Vol.1 of ''Buddhist Logic'', 1962, Dover: New York. 70-71.</ref>
==Psychology==
[[Image:Spirit of Tomorrow.JPG|right|thumb|Mother and child personify the [[optimism|optimistic]] "Spirit of Tomorrow" at [[Walt Disney World]]'s [[Epcot]].]]
{{expand|section|date=May 2008}}
While [[ethology|ethologists]] consider [[animal behavior]] to be largely based on [[fixed action pattern]]s or other learned traits in an animal's past, [[human behavior]] is known to encompass an anticipation of the future. Anticipatory behavior can be the result of a psychological outlook toward the future, for examples [[optimism]], [[pessimism]], and [[hope]].
Optimism is an outlook on life such that one maintains a view of the world as a positive place. People would say that optimism is seeing the glass "half full" of water as opposed to half empty. It is the philosophical opposite of pessimism. Optimists generally believe that people and events are inherently good, so that most situations work out in the end for the best.Hope is a belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one's life. Hope implies a certain amount of despair, wanting, wishing, suffering or perseverance — i.e., believing that a better or positive outcome is possible even when there is some evidence to the contrary. "Hopefulness" is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.
==Religion==
{{noreferences|section|date=June 2008}}
Religions consider the future when they address issues such as [[karma]], [[afterlife|life after death]], and [[eschatology|eschatologies]] that study what the end of time and the end of the world will be. In religion, major prophets are said to have the power to change the future. Common religious figures have claimed to see into the future, such as minor [[prophet]]s and [[divination|diviners]].
The term "afterlife" refers to the continuation of [[existence]] of the [[soul]], [[spirit]] or [[mind]] of a human (or animal) after physical [[death]], typically in a [[Spirituality|spiritual]] or [[ghost]]like afterworld. Deceased persons are usually believed to go to a specific region or [[planes of existence|plane of existence]] in this afterworld, often depending on the rightness of their actions during life.
Some believe the afterlife includes some form of preparation for the [[soul]] to be transferred to another body ([[reincarnation]]).
The major views on the afterlife derive from [[religion]], [[esotericism]] and [[metaphysics]]. There are those who are skeptical of the existence of the afterlife, or believe that it is absolutely impossible, such as the [[materialism|materialist]]-reductionists, who state that the topic is [[supernatural]], therefore does not really exist or is unknowable. In metaphysical models, [[theists]] generally believe some sort of afterlife awaits people when they die. [[Atheism|Atheists]] generally believe that there is not a life after death. Members of some generally non-theistic religions such as [[Buddhism]], tend to believe in an afterlife like [[reincarnation]] but without reference to [[God]].
[[Agnosticism|Agnostics]] generally hold the position that like the existence of God, the existence of supernatural phenomena, such as souls or life after death, is unverifiable and therefore unknowable. Some philosophies (i.e. [[posthumanism]], [[Humanism (life stance)|Humanism]], and often [[empiricism]]) generally hold that there is not an afterlife. Many religions, whether they believe in the soul’s existence in another world like Christianity, Islam and many [[pagan]] belief systems, or in reincarnation like many forms of Hinduism and Buddhism, believe that one’s status in the afterlife is a reward or punishment for their conduct during life.
[[Eschatology]] is a part of [[theology]] and [[philosophy]] concerned with the final events in the [[history of the world]], or the ultimate [[destiny]] of [[All humanity|humanity]], commonly referred to as the [[end of the world]]. While in [[mysticism]] the phrase refers metaphorically to the end of ordinary reality and reunion with the Divine, in many traditional [[religion]]s it is taught as an actual future event [[prophecy|prophesied]] in [[sacred text]]s or [[folklore]]. More broadly, eschatology may encompass related concepts such as the [[Messiah]] or [[Messianic Age]], the [[end time]], and the [[end of days]].
==In art and culture==
===Futurism===
[[Futurism]] was an [[art]] [[Art movement|movement]] that originated in [[Italy]] at the beginning of the 20th century. Futurism was a largely [[Italy|Italian]] and [[Russia]]n movement, although it also had adherents in other countries, England for example. The Futurists explored every medium of art, including [[painting]], [[sculpture]], [[poetry]], [[theatre]], [[music]], [[architecture]] and even [[gastronomy]]. Futurists had passionate loathing of ideas from the past, especially political and artistic traditions. He and others also espoused a love of [[speed]], [[technology]], and [[violence]]. Futurists dubbed the love of the past ''passéisme''. The car, the plane, the industrial town were all legendary for the Futurists, because they represented the technological triumph of people over [[nature]]. The ''Futurist Manifesto'' had declared, "We will glorify war - the world's only hygiene - militarism, patriotism, the destructive gesture of freedom-bringers, beautiful ideas worth dying for, and scorn for woman." <ref>[http://www.unknown.nu/futurism/manifesto.html The Founding and Manifesto of Futurism<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Although it owed much of its character and some of its ideas to radical political movements, it was not much involved in politics until the autumn of 1913.<ref>Martin, Marianne W., p.186</ref>
One of the many 20th century classical movements in music was one which involved homage to, inclusion of, or imitation of machines. Closely identified with the central Italian Futurist movement were brother composers [[Luigi Russolo]] and [[Antonio Russolo]], who used instruments known as "[[intonarumori]]", which were essentially sound boxes used to create music out of noise. Luigi Russolo's futurist manifesto, ''[[The Art of Noises]]'', is considered to be one of the most important and influential texts in 20th century musical aesthetics. Other examples of futurist music include [[Arthur Honegger]]'s [[Pacific 231]], which imitates the sound of a steam locomotive, Prokofiev's "The Steel Step", and the experiments of Edgard Varèse.
Literary [[Futurism (literature)|futurism]] made its debut with F.T. Marinetti's ''[[Futurist Manifesto|Manifesto of Futurism]]'' (1909). Futurist poetry used unexpected combinations of images and hyper-conciseness (not to be confused with the actual length of the poem). Futurist theater works have scenes that are few sentences long, and which use nonsensical humor and which attempt to discredit the deep-rooted dramatic traditions with parody. The longer forms of literature, such as the novel, had no place in the Futurist aesthetic, which was obsessed with speed and compression.
Futurism expanded to encompass other artistic domains and ultimately included painting, sculpture, ceramics, graphic design, industrial design, interior design, theatre design, textiles, drama, literature, music and architecture. In architecture, it was characterized by a distinctive thrust towards [[rationalism]] and [[modernism]] through the use of advanced building materials. The ideals of futurism remain as significant components of modern [[Western culture]]; the emphasis on youth, speed, power and technology finding expression in much of modern commercial cinema and culture. Futurism has produced several reactions, including the 1980s-era literary genre of [[cyberpunk]] — in which technology was often treated with a critical eye.
===Science fiction===
Science fiction writer [[Robert A. Heinlein]] defines sci-fi as " realistic speculation about possible future events, based solidly on adequate knowledge of the real world, past and present, and on a thorough understanding of the nature and significance of [[Scientific method|the scientific method]]."<ref name="heinlein def">{{cite conference
|title=Science Fiction: Its Nature, Faults and Virtues
|booktitle=The Science Fiction Novel: Imagination and Social Criticism
|publisher=Advent Publishers
|last=Heinlein
|first=Robert A.
|coauthors=Cyril Kornbluth, Alfred Bester, and Robert Bloch
|date=1959
|location=University of Chicago
}}</ref> More generally, [[science fiction]] is a broad genre of [[fiction]] that often involves speculations based on current or future [[science]] or [[technology]]. Science fiction is found in books, art, television, films, games, theater, and other media. Science fiction differs from fantasy in that, within the context of the story, its imaginary elements are largely possible within scientifically established or scientifically postulated laws of nature (though ''some'' elements in a story might still be pure imaginative speculation). Settings may include the future, or alternative time lines, and stories may depict new or speculative scientific principles, such as [[time travel]] or [[psionics]], or new technology, such as [[nanotechnology]], [[faster-than-light]] travel or [[robot]]s, Exploring the consequences of such differences is the traditional purpose of science fiction, making it a "literature of ideas".<ref>
{{cite web
| author = Marg Gilks, Paula Fleming and Moira Allen
| title = Science Fiction: The Literature of Ideas
| work =
| publisher =WritingWorld.com
| date =2003
| url = http://www.writing-world.com/sf/sf.shtml
| accessdate = }}
</ref>
Some [[science fiction]] authors construct a postulated [[history]] of the future called a "[[future history]]" which serves as a common background for their fiction. Sometimes the author publishes a [[Chronology|timeline]] of events in their history, while other times the reader can reconstruct the order of the stories from information provided therein. Some works were published which constituted "future history" in a more literal sense - i.e., stories or whole books purporting to be excerpts of a history book from the future and which are written in the form of a history book - i.e., having no personal protagonists but rather describing the development of nations and societies over decades and centuries. Examples include [[H.G. Wells]]' ''[[The Shape of Things to Come]]'' (1933), which was written in the form of a history book published in the year 2106 and - in the manner of a real history book - containing numerous footnotes and references to the works of (mostly fictitious) prominent historians of the 20th and 21st centuries.
==References==
{{reflist}}
==See also==
*[[Alternate future]]
*[[Cheiromancy]]
*[[Futurism]]
*[[Futurology]]
==External links==
*[http://future.wikia.com/ Future Wikia], a wiki engaged in fact-based speculations about the future
{{Time Topics}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Future}}
[[Category:Future]]
[[Category:Time]]
[[ay:Qhipa]]
[[ca:Futur]]
[[cs:Budoucnost]]
[[da:Fremtiden]]
[[de:Zukunft]]
[[es:Futuro]]
[[eo:Estonteco]]
[[eu:Etorkizun]]
[[fr:Futur]]
[[gl:Futuro]]
[[ko:미래]]
[[is:Framtíð]]
[[it:Futuro]]
[[he:עתיד]]
[[hu:Jövő]]
[[nl:Toekomst]]
[[ja:未来]]
[[no:Fremtid]]
[[nn:Framtid]]
[[pl:Przyszłość]]
[[pt:Futuro]]
[[qu:Qhipa pacha]]
[[ru:Будущее]]
[[sq:E ardhmja]]
[[simple:Future]]
[[sk:Budúcnosť]]
[[sr:Будућност]]
[[fi:Tulevaisuus]]
[[sv:Framtid]]
[[vec:Darente]]
[[zh:未来]]