Greenhouse gas
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Reverted edits by [[Special:Contributions/70.238.118.218|70.238.118.218]] ([[User talk:70.238.118.218|talk]]) to last version by Mike R
[[Image:Carbon History and Flux Rev.png|thumb|right|250px|Top: Increasing atmospheric [[carbon dioxide|{{chem|CO|2}}]] levels as measured in the atmosphere and [[ice core]]s. Bottom: The amount of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon emissions from burning [[fossil fuel]].]]
'''Greenhouse gases''' are the gases present in the earth's atmosphere which reduce the loss of heat into space and therefore contribute to global temperatures through the [[greenhouse effect]]. Greenhouse gases are essential to maintaining the temperature of the [[Earth]]; without them the planet would be so cold as to be uninhabitable.<ref>Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth, [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/302/5651/1719 Modern Global Climate Change] Science, 5 December 2003: Vol. 302. no. 5651, pp. 1719 - 1723. DOI: 10.1126/science.1090228</ref><ref>Le Treut, H., R. Somerville, U. Cubasch, Y. Ding, C. Mauritzen, A. Mokssit, T. Peterson and M. Prather, 2007: [http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch01.pdf Historical Overview of Climate Change Science] In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and
H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA</ref> However, an excess of greenhouse gases can raise the temperature of a [[planet]] to lethal levels, as on [[Atmosphere of Venus|Venus]] where the 90 [[bar (unit)|bar]] partial pressure of [[Carbon dioxide|carbon dioxide ({{chem|CO|2}})]] contributes to a surface temperature of about <!-- 740 K --> 467 °C (872 °F). Greenhouse gases are produced by many natural and industrial processes, which currently result in {{chem|CO|2}} levels of 380 [[ppmv]] in the atmosphere. Based on ice-core samples and records (see graphs) current levels of {{chem|CO|2}} are approximately 100 ppmv higher than during immediately pre-industrial times, when direct human influence was negligible.
==The greenhouse effect==
{{main|Greenhouse effect}}
[[Image:Atmospheric Transmission.png|thumb|right|300px|Pattern of [[absorption band]]s created by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and their effect on both [[solar radiation]] and upgoing thermal radiation]]
When sunlight reaches the surface of the Earth, some of it is absorbed and warms the surface. Because the Earth's surface is much cooler than the sun, it [[Black body|radiates energy]] at [[Wien's displacement law|much longer wavelengths]] than the sun does, peaking in the [[infrared]] at about 10 µm. The atmosphere absorbs these longer wavelengths more effectively than it does the shorter wavelengths from the sun. The absorption of this longwave radiant energy warms the atmosphere; the atmosphere is also warmed by transfer of [[sensible heat|sensible]] and [[latent heat]] from the surface. Greenhouse gases also ''emit'' longwave radiation both upward to space and downward to the surface. The downward part of this longwave radiation emitted by the atmosphere is the "[[greenhouse effect]]". The term is a misnomer though, as this process is not the [[Greenhouse effect#Real greenhouses|mechanism that warms greenhouses]].
On earth, the most abundant greenhouse gases are, in order of relative abundance:
* [[water vapor]]
* [[carbon dioxide]]
* [[methane]]
* [[nitrous oxide]]
* [[ozone]]
* [[Chlorofluorocarbon#Chloro_fluoro_compounds_.28CFC.2C_HCFC.29|CFC]]s
The most important greenhouse gases are:
* [[water vapor]], which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect on Earth. (Note clouds typically [[Cloud forcing|affect climate]] differently from other forms of atmospheric water.)
* [[carbon dioxide]], which causes 9–26%
* [[methane]], which causes 4–9%
* [[ozone]], which causes 3–7%
:Note that this is a combination of the strength of the greenhouse effect of the gas and its abundance. For example, methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO<sub>2</sub>, but present in much smaller concentrations.
It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes a certain percentage of the [[greenhouse effect]], because the influences of the various gases are not additive. (The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for the gas alone; the lower ends, for the gas counting overlaps.)<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf| title=Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget| first=J. T.| last=Kiehl| coauthors= Kevin E. Trenberth| format=PDF | journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society| pages=197–208| volume=78| issue=2| month=February| year=1997| accessdate=2006-05-01| doi=10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142| year=6 April 2005| title=Water vapour: feedback or forcing?| publisher=RealClimate| accessdate=2006-05-01}}</ref> Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to, [[nitrous oxide]], [[sulfur hexafluoride]], [[hydrofluorocarbon]]s, [[perfluorocarbon]]s and [[chlorofluorocarbons]] (see [[IPCC list of greenhouse gases]]). A significant greenhouse gas not yet addressed by the IPCC (or the [[Kyoto Protocol]]) is [[nitrogen trifluoride]].<ref name="NF3">{{cite journal |last= Prather |first= Michael J. |coauthors= J Hsu |title= NF<sub>3</sub>, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto |journal= [[Geophysical Research Letters]] |volume= 35 |issue= L12810 |pages= |publisher= [[American Geophysical Union]] |date= [[2008-06-26]] |url= http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL034542.shtml |doi= 10.1029/2008GL034542 }}</ref>
The major atmospheric constituents ([[Nitrogen|nitrogen, N<sub>2</sub>]] and [[O2|oxygen, O<sub>2</sub>]]) are not greenhouse gases. This is because [[diatomic|homonuclear diatomic molecules]] such as N<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>2</sub> neither absorb nor emit [[infrared]] radiation, as there is no net change in the [[dipole moment]] of these molecules when they vibrate. Molecular vibrations occur at energies that are of the same magnitude as the energy of the photons on infrared light. Heteronuclear diatomics such as CO or HCl absorb IR; however, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. As a consequence they do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect.
Late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>2</sub> did not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation") and that CO<sub>2</sub> and many other gases did absorb such radiation. It was recognized in the early 20th century that the known major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused the earth's temperature to be higher than it would have been without the greenhouse gases.
== Natural and anthropogenic ==
[[Image:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png|thumb|right|400,000 years of CO2]]
Most greenhouse gases have both natural and anthropogenic sources. During the pre-industrial [[holocene]], concentrations of these gases were roughly constant. Since the [[industrial revolution]], concentrations of all the long-lived greenhouse gases have increased due to human actions.<ref>{{cite web | url= http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf | format=[[Portable Document Format|PDF]] | title= Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science | work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | accessdate=2008-04-25 | date=[[2007-02-05]] | publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]}}</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Gas
!Preindustrial Level
!Current Level
!Increase since 1750
![[Radiative forcing]] (W/m<sup>2</sup>)
|-
| [[Carbon dioxide]] || 280 ppm || 384ppm || 104 ppm || 1.46
|-
| [[Methane]] || 700 ppb || 1,745 ppb || 1,045 ppb || 0.48
|-
| [[Nitrous oxide]] || 270 ppb || 314 ppb || 44 ppb || 0.15
|-
| [[dichlorodifluoromethane|CFC-12]] || 0 || 533 ppt || 533 ppt || 0.17
|-
|}
[[Ice core]]s provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 800,000 years. Both {{chem|CO|2}} and {{chem|CH|4}} vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature. Before the ice core record, direct measurements do not exist. Various proxies and modelling suggests large variations; 500 Myr ago {{chem|CO|2}} levels were likely 10 times higher than now.<ref>[[:Image:Phanerozoic Carbon Dioxide.png]]</ref> Indeed higher {{chem|CO|2}} concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the [[Phanerozoic]] eon, with concentrations four to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the [[Devonian]] period, about 400 Mya.<ref name=Berner1994>Berner, RA, (1994) GEOCARB II: a revised model of atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} over Phanerozoic time. American Journal of Science 294, 56–91</ref><ref name=Royeretal2001>DL Royer, RA Berner and DJ Beerling (2001) Phanerozoic atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} change: evaluating geochemical and paleobiological approaches. Earth-Science Reviews 54, 349-392</ref><ref name=Berner&Kothavala2001>Berner, RA, Kothavala, Z (2001) GEOCARB III: a revised model of atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} over Phanerozoic time. American Journal of Science 301, 182-204</ref> The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced {{chem|CO|2}} concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of {{chem|CO|2}} have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.<ref name=Beerling2005>Beerling, DJ and Berner, RA (2005) Feedbacks and the co-evolution of plants and atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}}. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 102, 1302-1305</ref>
Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator ([[Snowball Earth]]) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Mya, by a colossal volcanic outgassing which raised the {{chem|CO|2}} concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as [[limestone]] at the rate of about 1mm per day.<ref name=Hoffmannetal1998>PF Hoffmann, AJ Kaufman, GP Halverson, DP Schrag (1998) A neoproterozoic snowball earth. Science 281, 1342-1346 [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/281/5381/1342?ijkey=48d78da67bab492803c333f50c0dd84fbbef109c]</ref> This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.<ref name=Hoffmannetal1998 /><ref name=gerlach1991>TM Gerlach (1991) Present-day {{chem|CO|2}} emissions from volcanoes. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 72, 249-255</ref>
==Anthropogenic greenhouse gases==
[[Image:Greenhouse Gas by Sector.png|thumb|350px|right|Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions broken down into 8 different sectors for the year 2000.]]
[[Image:IPCC AR4 WGIII GHG concentration stabilization levels.png|thumb|right|350px|The projected [[global warming|temperature increase]] for a range of greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (the coloured bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the blue lines the likely limits. From the work of [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|IPCC AR4, 2007]].]]
[[Image:GHG per capita 2000.svg|thumb|350px|Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000 including land-use change.]]
Since about 1750 [[human]] activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and of some other important greenhouse gases.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-6.htm|title=Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis: figure 6-6| accessdate=2006-05-01}}</ref> Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity,<ref>[http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/13.htm The present carbon cycle - Climate Change<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks such as weathering of continental rocks and photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. As a result of this balance, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide remained between 260 and 280 parts per million for the 10,000 years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the industrial era.<ref name="IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 7" />
Some of the main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity include:
* burning of [[fossil fuel]]s and [[deforestation]] leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations. Land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) account for up to one third of total anthropogenic {{chem|CO|2}} emissions.<ref name="IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 7">{{Cite book
| author=IPCC
| authorlink=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| coauthors=Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)
| title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| year=2007
| publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]
| location= [[Cambridge]], [[United Kingdom]] and [[New York City|New York, NY]], [[United States|USA]]
| isbn=978-0-521-88009-1
| chapter=Chapter 7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry
| chapterurl=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter7.pdf
| chapterformat=PDF 7.83 MB
| accessdate=2008-05-13
}}</ref>
* livestock [[enteric fermentation]] and manure management,<ref name=livestock>H. Steinfeld, P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan (2006) Livestock’s long shadow. Environmental issues and options. FAO Livestock, Environment and Development (LEAD) Initiative. [http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.pdf]</ref> paddy [[rice]] farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane.
* use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in [[refrigeration]] systems, and use of CFCs and [[halon]]s in [[fire extinguisher|fire suppression]] systems and manufacturing processes.
* agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher [[nitrous oxide]] concentrations.
The seven sources of {{chem|CO|2}} from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):<ref name=Raupach/>
# Solid fuels (e.g. [[coal]]): 35%
# Liquid fuels (e.g. [[gasoline]]): 36%
# Gaseous fuels (e.g. [[natural gas]]): 20%
# [[Flaring]] gas industrially and at wells: <1%
# [[Cement]] production: 3%
# Non-fuel hydrocarbons: <1%
# The "international [[Fuel oil#Bunker Fuel|bunkers]]" of shipping and air transport not included in national inventories: 4%
The U.S. EPA ranks the major greenhouse gas contributing end-user sectors in the following order: industrial, transportation, residential, commercial and agricultural<ref>[http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory - U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports | Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions | U.S. EPA<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>.
Major sources of an individual's GHG include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and transportation. Corresponding conservation measures are improving home [[building insulation]], [[compact fluorescent lamp]]s and choosing [[miles per gallon|energy-efficient]] vehicles.
[[Carbon dioxide]], [[methane]], [[nitrous oxide]] and three groups of [[fluorinated]] gases ([[sulfur hexafluoride]], [[Hydrofluorocarbon|HFC]]s, and [[Perfluorocarbon|PFCs]]) are the major greenhouse gases and the subject of the [[Kyoto Protocol]], which came into force in 2005.<ref name="Environmental issues: essential primary sources.">{{cite web | last = Lerner & K. Lee Lerner | first = Brenda Wilmoth | date = 2006 | url = http://catalog.loc.gov/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?v3=1&DB=local&CMD=010a+2006000857&CNT=10+records+per+page | title = Environmental issues: essential primary sources." | publisher = Thomson Gale | accessdate = 2006-09-11 }}</ref>
Although [[CFCs]] are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the [[Montreal Protocol]], which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to [[ozone depletion]] rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media.
== Role of water vapor ==
[[Image:BAMS climate assess boulder water vapor 2002.png|thumb|350px|Increasing water vapor at Boulder, Colorado.]]
[[Water vapor]] is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas and accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66%.<ref>realclimate.org. [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142 Water vapour: feedback or forcing?].</ref> Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not directly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales (for example, near irrigated fields).
The [[Clausius-Clapeyron relation]] establishes that warmer air can hold more water vapor per unit volume. Current state-of-the-art [[climate model]]s predict that increasing water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the greenhouse effect created by anthropogenic greenhouse gases while maintaining nearly constant [[relative humidity]]. Thus water vapor acts as a positive feedback to the forcing provided by greenhouse gases such as CO<sub>2</sub>.<ref>
{{citation | first=Isaac M. | last=Held | first2=Brian J. | last2=Soden | title=Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming | url=http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2006/ih0601.pdf | journal=[[Journal of Climate]] | volume=19 | issue = 21 | pages = 5686–5699 | doi = 10.1175/JCLI3990 | accessdate = 2007-07-11 | year=2006 | doi_brokendate=2008-06-25 }}</ref>
==Greenhouse gas emissions==
{{Main|List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions}}
[[Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere#Historical variation|Measurements from Antarctic ice cores]] show that just before industrial emissions started, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels were about 280 parts per million by volume (ppm; the units µL/L are occasionally used and are identical to parts per million by volume). From the same ice cores it appears that CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations stayed between 260 and 280 ppm during the preceding 10,000 years. However, because of the way air is trapped in ice and the time period represented in each ice sample analised, these figures are long term averages not annual levels. Studies using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggest greater variability, with CO<sub>2</sub> levels above 300 ppm during the period 7,000–10,000 years ago,<ref>{{cite journal | author=Friederike Wagner, Bent Aaby and Henk Visscher | title=Rapid atmospheric CO2 changes associated with the 8,200-years-B.P. cooling event | journal=PNAS | volume=99 | issue=19 | year=2002 | pages=12011–12014 | doi=10.1073/pnas.182420699 | pmid=12202744 }}</ref> though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration/contamination problems rather than actual CO<sub>2</sub> variability.<ref>{{cite journal | author=Andreas Indermühle, Bernhard Stauffer, Thomas F. Stocker | title=Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations | journal=Science | volume=286 | issue=5446 | year=1999 | pages=1815 | doi=10.1126/science.286.5446.1815a }} {{cite web | title=Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations | work=Science | url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/286/5446/1815a | accessdate = 2005-05-26}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | author=H.J. Smith, M Wahlen and D. Mastroianni| title=The CO<sub>2</sub> concentration of air trapped in GISP2 ice from the Last Glacial Maximum-Holocene transition| journal=Geophysical Research Letters| volume=24| issue=1| year=1997| pages=1–4| doi=10.1029/96GL03700}}</ref>
Since the beginning of the [[Industrial Revolution]], the concentrations of many of the greenhouse gases have increased. The concentration of CO<sub>2</sub> has increased by about 100 ppm (i.e., from 280 ppm to 380 ppm). The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to around 1973; the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.<ref>{{PDFlink|[http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf]|96.8 [[Kibibyte|KiB]]<!-- application/pdf, 99137 bytes -->}}</ref>. Many observations are available online in a variety of [[Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases]]. The greenhouse gases with the largest radiative forcing are:
{|class="wikitable"
|+ Relevant to [[radiative forcing]]
!Gas
! abbr="Current" | Current (1998) Amount by volume
! abbr="Increase" | Increase over pre-industrial (1750)
! abbr="Percentage" | Percentage increase
! abbr="Radiative forcing" | Radiative forcing ([[Watt|W]]/[[metre|m]]²)
|-
! [[Carbon dioxide]]
| <center>365 [[Parts per million|ppm]] {383 ppm(2007.01)}</center> || <center>87 ppm {105 ppm(2007.01)}</center> || <center>31% {37.77%(2007.01)}</center> || <center>1.46 {~1.532 (2007.01)}</center>
|-
! [[Methane]]
| <center>1,745 [[Parts per billion|ppb]]</center> || <center>1,045 ppb</center> || <center>150%</center> || <center>0.48</center>
|-
! [[Nitrous oxide]]
| <center>314 ppb</center> || <center>44 ppb</center> || <center>16%</center> || <center>0.15</center>
|}
[[Image:Global Carbon Emission by Type to Y2004.png|thumb|right|250px|Global anthropogenic [[Carbon]] emissions [[1751]]–[[2004]].]]
{|class="wikitable"
|+ Relevant to both [[radiative forcing]] and [[ozone depletion]]; all of the following have no natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
!Gas
!abbr="Current" | Current (1998)<br> Amount by volume
!abbr="Radiative forcing" | Radiative forcing <br>(W/m²)
|-
! [[Trichlorofluoromethane|CFC-11]]
| <center>268 [[Parts per trillion|ppt]]</center> ||<center>0.07</center>
|-
! [[Dichlorodifluoromethane|CFC-12]]
| <center>533 ppt</center> ||<center>0.17</center>
|-
! [[Chlorofluorocarbon|CFC]]-113
| <center>84 ppt</center> ||<center>0.03</center>
|-
! [[Carbon tetrachloride]]
| <center>102 ppt</center> ||<center>0.01</center>
|-
! [[HCFC-22]]
| <center>69 ppt</center> || <center>0.03</center>
|}
(Source: [[IPCC]] radiative forcing report [[1994]] updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1 [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/221.htm] [http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html]).
===Recent rates of change and emission===
[[Image:GHG intensity 2000.svg|thumb|350px|Greenhouse gas intensity in 2000 including land-use change]]
The sharp acceleration in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions since 2000 of >3% y<sup>−1</sup> (>2 ppm y<sup>−1</sup>) from 1.1% y<sup>−1</sup> during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in [[carbon intensity]] of both developing and developed nations. Although over 3/4 of cumulative anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> is still attributable to the developed world, China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the [[Soviet Union]] have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported.<ref name=Raupach>Raupach, M.R. ''et al.'' (2007) [http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0700609104v1.pdf "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO<sub>2</sub> emissions."] ''[[Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.]]'' '''104'''(24): 10288–10293.''</ref> In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N<sub>2</sub>O by 0.25% y<sup>−1</sup>.<ref>[http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg/printedmatter/Bulletin2005/ghg-bulletin-2-red.pdf]</ref>
The direct emissions from industry have declined due to a constant improvement in energy efficiency, but also to a high penetration of electricity. If one includes indirect emissions, related to the production of electricity, CO2 emissions from industry in Europe are roughly stabilized since 1994. <ref>''Climate change policies : Analysis of sectoral changes in Europe'', C. Barbier, R. Baron, M. Colombier, C. Boemare, Idées pour le débat, n° 24, 2004, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. [http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-le-debat/Climate-change-policies.-Analysis-of-sectoral-changes-in-Europe]</ref>
====Asia====
Atmospheric levels of CO<sub>2</sub> have set another new peak, partly a sign of the industrial rise of Asian economies led by [[China]].<ref>[http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/46517/story.htm Planet Ark: Greenhouse Gases at New Peak in Sign of Asia Growth<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Over the 2000-2010 interval China is expected to increase its carbon dioxide emissions by 600 Mt, largely because of the rapid construction of old-fashioned power plants in poorer internal provinces.<ref>[http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/international/03-08ChinasCarbonDioxideEmissions.asp "UC Analysis Shows Alarming Increase in Expected Growth of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions"] accessed [[2008-03-11]]</ref>
====United States====
{{Main|Greenhouse gas emissions by the United States|United States federal register of greenhouse gas emissions}}
The United States emitted 16.3% more GHG in 2005 than it did in 1990.<ref>Emissions inventory from the EPA, cited in ''Science News'', vol. 171, p. 318</ref> According to a preliminary estimate by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the largest national producer of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions since 2006 has been China with an estimated annual production of about 6200 megatonnes. China is followed by the United States with about 5,800 megatonnes. However the per capita emission figures of China are still about one quarter of those of the US population.
[[Image:Major greenhouse gas trends.png|thumb|right|350px|Major greenhouse gas trends]]
Relative to 2005, China's fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions increased in 2006 by 8.7%, while in the USA, comparable CO<sub>2</sub> emissions decreased in 2006 by 1.4%. The agency notes that its estimates do not include some CO<sub>2</sub> sources of uncertain magnitude.<ref name="mnp">{{cite web | date = 2007 | url = http://www.mnp.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/Chinanowno1inCO2emissionsUSAinsecondposition.html | title = "China now no. 1 in CO2 emissions; USA in second position" | accessdate = 2007-06-21 }}</ref> These figures rely on national CO<sub>2</sub> data that do not include aviation. Although these tonnages are small compared to the [[carbon dioxide|CO<sub>2</sub>]] in the [[Earth's atmosphere]], they are significantly larger than pre-industrial levels.
===Long-term trend===
[[Image:CO2 increase rate.png|thumb|right|Year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>]]
Atmospheric [[carbon dioxide]] concentration is increasing at an increasing rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.<ref>Dr. Pieter Tans ([[3 May]] [[2008]]) [ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_gr_mlo.txt "Annual CO2 mole fraction increase (ppm)" for 1959-2007] [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division ([http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ additional details]; see also K.A. Masarie, P.P. Tans (1995) "Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record," J. Geopys. Research, vol. 100, 11593-11610.)</ref>
== Removal from the atmosphere and global warming potential==
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of days, most greenhouse gases take many years to leave the atmosphere. Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes:
* as a consequence of a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere).
* as a consequence of chemical reactions within the atmosphere. This is the case for methane. It is [[oxidized]] by reaction with naturally occurring [[hydroxyl]] [[free radical|radical]], OH'''·''' and degraded to {{chem|CO|2}} and water vapor at the end of a chain of reactions (the contribution of the {{chem|CO|2}} from the oxidation of methane is not included in the methane [[Global warming potential]]). This also includes solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
* as a consequence of a physical interchange at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans at the [[boundary layer]].
* as a consequence of a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the case for {{chem|CO|2}}, which is reduced by [[photosynthesis]] of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form [[carbonic acid]] and [[bicarbonate]] and [[carbonate]] ions (see [[ocean acidification]]).
* as a consequence of a [[Photochemistry|photochemical change]]. Halocarbons are dissociated by [[UV]] light releasing Cl'''·''' and F'''·''' as [[free radical]]s in the [[stratosphere]] with harmful effects on [[ozone]] (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction in the atmosphere).
* as a consequence of dissociative ionization caused by high energy [[cosmic rays]] or lightning discharges, which break [[molecular bond]]s. For example, lightning forms N [[anions]] from N<sub>2</sub> which then react with O<sub>2</sub> to form NO<sub>2</sub>.
[[Image:CO2 responsibility 1950-2000.svg|thumb|350px|Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}}]]
=== Atmospheric lifetime ===
Jacob (1999)<ref name=JacobDJ1999/> defines the lifetime <math>\tau</math> of
an atmospheric [[chemical species|species]] X in a [[box model|one-box model]] as the average
time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically <math>\tau</math> can
be defined as the ratio of the mass <math>m</math> (in kg) of X in the box to its
removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box
(<math>F_{out}</math>),
chemical loss of X
(<math>L</math>),
and [[deposition (chemistry)|deposition]] of X
(<math>D</math>)
(all in kg/sec):
<math>\tau = \frac{m}{F_{out}+L+D}</math>
<ref name=JacobDJ1999>{{cite book
| last = Jacob
| first = Daniel
| title = Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry
| publisher = [[Princeton University Press]]
| year = 1999
| url = http://www-as.harvard.edu/people/faculty/djj/book/
| isbn = 0-691-00185-5
| pages = pp. 25-26
}}</ref>
The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following an increase in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the [[mean lifetime]]. The atmospheric lifetime of {{chem|CO|2}} is often incorrectly stated to be only a few years because that is the average time for any {{chem|CO|2}} molecule to stay in the atmosphere before being removed by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, or other processes. However, this ignores the balancing fluxes of {{chem|CO|2}} into the atmosphere from the other reservoirs. It is the net concentration changes of the various greenhouse gases by ''all sources and sinks'' that determines atmospheric lifetime, not just the removal processes.
Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and [[global warming potential|GWP]] for several greenhouse gases include:
* '''[[Carbon Dioxide|CO<sub>2</sub>]]''' has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.<ref>{{Citation | contribution=Frequently Asked Question 7.1 "Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?" | contribution-url=http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-7-1.pdf | title=IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html | year=2007 | publisher=[[Cambridge Press]] | publication-place=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA | access-date=[[2007-07-24]] | isbn=978-0521-88009-1 | editor1-first=Susan | editor1-last=Solomon | editor2-first=Dahe | editor2-last=Qin | editor3-first=Martin | editor3-last=Manning | editor4-first=Melinda | editor4-last=Marquis | editor5-first=Kristen | editor5-last=Averyt | editor6-first=Melinda M.B. | editor6-last=Tignor | editor7-first=Henry LeRoy | editor7-last=Miller, Jr. | editor8-first=Zhenlin | editor8-last=Chen }}</ref> Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of thousands of years.<ref name="carbon_lifetime1">{{Citation | url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf | first = David | last = Archer | title = Fate of fossil fuel {{chem|CO|2}} in geologic time | journal = [[Journal of Geophysical Research]] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S05.1–C09S05.6 | year = 2005 |
doi=10.1029/2004JC002625 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime2">{{Citation | first1=Ken | last1=Caldeira | first2=Michael E. | last2= Wickett | url=http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification/paper/Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR.pdf | title = Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean | journal = [[Journal of Geophysical Research]] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S04.1–C09S04.12| year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002671 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref> Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.
* '''[[Methane]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 62 over 20 years, 23 over 100 years and 7 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP associated with longer times is associated with the fact that the methane is degraded to water and CO<sub>2</sub> by chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
* '''[[Nitrous oxide]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years and a GWP of 296 over 100 years.
* '''[[CFC-12]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 100 years and a GWP of 10600 over 100 years.
* '''[[HCFC-22]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 12.1 years and a GWP of 1700 over 100 years.
* '''[[Tetrafluoromethane]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 50,000 years and a GWP of 5700 over 100 years.
* '''[[Sulfur hexafluoride]]''' has an atmospheric lifetime of 3,200 years and a GWP of 22000 over 100 years.
Source: [[IPCC]], [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/248.htm table 6.7].
The use of [[CFC-12]] (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its [[Ozone depletion|ozone depleting]] properties<ref>Use of ozone depleting substances in laboratories. TemaNord 2003:516. http://www.norden.org/pub/ebook/2003-516.pdf.</ref>. The phasing-out of less active [[Haloalkane|HCFC-compounds]] will be completed in 2030<ref>[[Montreal Protocol]]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_protocol</ref>.
=== Airborne fraction ===
[[Airborne fraction]] (AF) is the proportion of a emission
(e.g. {{chem|CO|2}}) remaining in the atmosphere after a specified time. Canadell (2007)<ref name=Canadell2007 /> define the annual AF as the ratio of the atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} increase in a given year to that year’s total emissions, and calculate that of the average 9.1 PgC y<sup>-1</sup> of total anthropogenic emissions from 2000 to 2006, the AF was 0.45. For {{chem|CO|2}} the AF over the last 50 years (1956-2006) has been increasing at 0.25±0.21%/year.<ref name=Canadell2007>{{cite journal
| author = Canadell, J.G.
| coauthors = Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M.R.; Field, C.B.; Buitenhuis, E.T.; Ciais, P.; Conway, T.J.; Gillett, N.P.; Houghton, R.A.; Marland, G.
| year = 2007
| title = Contributions to accelerating atmospheric {{chem|CO|2}} growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
| journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
| pages = 0702737104v1
| url = http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0702737104v1.pdf
| accessdate = 2008-03-15
}}</ref>
=== Global warming potential ===
The [[global warming potential]] (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of {{chem|CO|2}} and evaluated for a specific timescale. Thus, if a molecule has a high GWP on a short time scale (say 20 years) but has only a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20 year scale but a small one on a 100 year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO<sub>2</sub> its GWP will increase with time.
== Related effects ==
[[Image:Mopitt first year carbon monoxide.jpg|thumb|240px|[[MOPITT]] [[2000]] global [[carbon monoxide]] ]]
[[Carbon monoxide]] has an indirect radiative effect by elevating concentrations of [[methane]] and [[tropospheric ozone]] through scavenging of atmospheric constituents (e.g., the [[hydroxyl radical]], '''OH''') that would otherwise destroy them. Carbon monoxide is created when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely. Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to [[carbon dioxide]]. Carbon monoxide has an atmospheric lifetime of only a few months<ref>{{PDFlink|[http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC_Rpt35.pdf Impact of Emissions, Chemistry, and Climate on Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide: 100-year Predictions from a Global Chemistry-Climate Model]|115 [[Kibibyte|KiB]]<!-- application/pdf, 118636 bytes -->}}</ref> and as a consequence is spatially more variable than longer-lived gases.
Another potentially important indirect effect comes from methane, which in addition to its direct radiative impact also contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al (2005)<ref>Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bell, Nadine; Schmidt, Gavin A. "An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone", ''Geophysical Research Letters'', Vol. 32, No. 4 [http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/methane.html]</ref> argue that the contribution to climate change from methane is at least double previous estimates as a result of this effect.<ref>[http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/methane.html Methane's Impacts on Climate Change May Be Twice Previous Estimates]</ref>
==See also==
{{columns-list|3|
* [[Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases]] for links to freely available data.
* [[Atmospheric window]]
* [[Attribution of recent climate change]]
* [[List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|Carbon emissions by country]]
* [[Carbon dioxide sink]]
* [[Carbon Disclosure Project]]
* [[Carbon emissions reporting]]
* [[Carbon neutral]]
* [[Clean Air Act]]
* [[Climate Group]]
* [[Earth's atmosphere]]
* [[Emission standard]]
* [[Environmental accounting]]
* [[Environmental agreements]]
* [[European Climate Change Programme]]
* [[Global warming]]
* [[Greenhouse debt]]
* [[Greenhouse effect]]
* [[Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation]]
* [[Greenhouse gas emissions in the USA]]
* [[Global Atmosphere Watch]]
* [[Hydrogen economy]]
* [[List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita]]
* [[Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency]]
* [[North American Carbon Program]]
* [[Norwegian Polar Institute]]
* [[Ocean acidification]]
* [[Radiative forcing]]
* [[Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative]]
* [[United Nations]] [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]
* [[Virgin Earth Challenge]]
* [[Western Regional Climate Action Initiative]]
* [[World energy resources and consumption]]
* [[Zero carbon economy]]
}}
== References ==
{{reflist|2}}
== External links ==
{{Wikisource|California_AB_1493}}
{{Portal|Environment}}
*{{dmoz|Science/Environment/Global_Change/}}
*[http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/aggi/ The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI)]
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Greenhouse Gases] Sources, Levels, Study results — University of Michigan; eia.doe.gov findings
*[http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/greenhouse_gas.cfm How Much Greenhouse Gas Does the United States Emit?]
*[http://www.coalonline.info/site/coalonline/content/reading-pane?LogDocId=81351&PhyDocId=5854&filename=5854_100.html Greenhouse-gas reduction technologies for coal-fired power generation].
;Carbon dioxide emissions
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/res.html International Energy Annual: Reserves]
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon.html International Energy Annual 2003: Carbon Dioxide Emissions]
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/Notes%20for%20Table%20H_1co2.html International Energy Annual 2003: Notes and Sources for Table H.1co2] (Metric tons of carbon dioxide can be converted to metric tons of carbon equivalent by multiplying by 12/44)
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/pubs_html/attf94_v2/appd_d.html DOE — EIA — Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 1994 — Volume 2, Greenhouse Gas Emissions] (includes "Greenhouse Gas Spectral Overlaps and Their Significance")
*[http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok.html NOAA Paleoclimatology Program — Vostok Ice Core]
*[http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/ NOAA CMDL CCGG — Interactive Atmospheric Data Visualization] NOAA CO<sub>2</sub> data
*[http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre FAQ] Includes links to Carbon Dioxide statistics
*[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDATASTA/64199955-1178226923002/21322619/LGDB2007.pdf Little Green Data Book 2007], World Bank. Lists C02 statistics by country, including per capita and by country income class.
*[http://www.cheap-parking.net/flight-carbon-emissions.php Flight Carbon Emission Calculator]
*[http://www.carma.org Database of carbon emissions of power plants]
;Methane emissions
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5321046.stm BBC News — Thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more methane]
*[http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/release/20071122methane.html METHANE-EATING BUG HOLDS PROMISE FOR CUTTING GREENHOUSE GAS]. Media Release, GNS Science, New Zealand
;Policy and advocacy
*[http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/greenhousefriendly/index.html Australian Greenhouse Gas Initiative]
*[http://www.globalgreenplan.net Global Green Plan], a not-for profit organisation based in Melbourne, Australia, developing school curriculum to teach youth how to reduce emissions
*[http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA334.html Carbon Dioxide is Good for the Environment] 2001 paper by the [[National Center for Public Policy Research]]
*[http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide] paper by the [[Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine]]
*[http://ec.europa.eu/environment/co2/co2_home.htm EU page about reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from] [[light-duty vehicle]]s : the EU's aim is to reach — by 2010 at the latest — an average CO<sub>2</sub> emission figure of 120 g/km for all new [[automobile|passenger car]]s marketed in the Union.
{{global warming}}
[[Category:Climate change feedbacks and causes]]
[[Category:Climate forcing agents]]
[[Category:Greenhouse gases| ]]
[[Category:Carbon finance]]
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