Hubbert peak theory
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225974521
2008-07-16T07:55:14Z
Sdalmonte
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{{redirect|Hubbert peak|the episode of ''[[The West Wing]]''|The Hubbert Peak}}
{{PeakOil}}
The '''Hubbert peak theory''' posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of [[petroleum]] production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on [[peak oil]].
Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.
The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. Extraction roughly follows the discovery curve after a time lag (typically about 35 years<ref name=Laherrere2005">Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19-20, 2005 [http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/ASPO2005_Laherrere.pdf]</ref><ref name="wood2003">J.R. Wood, Michigan Technical University Geology Department Oil Seminar 2003 [http://www.geo.mtu.edu/svl/GE3320/OIL%20SEMINAR%20jrw.ppt]</ref>) for development. The theory is named after American geophysicist [[M. King Hubbert]], who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
[[Image:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg|right|thumb|250px|A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by [[M. King Hubbert]] in [[1956]].]]
[[Image:Hubbert world 2004.png|thumb|250px|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in [[OPEC]] and the [[former Soviet Union]]]]
[[Image:World energy consumption, 1970-2025, EIA.png|right|thumb|250px|World energy consumption & predictions, 1970-2025. ''Source: International Energy Outlook 2004.'']]
==Hubbert's peak==
"Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.
[[Peak oil]] as a proper noun, or "Hubbert's peak" applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth would enter a terminal decline. Based on his theory, in a paper<ref name="Hubbert1956">Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956[http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf]</ref> he presented to the [[American Petroleum Institute]] in 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental [[United States]] around 1965-1970. Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview<ref name="Hubbert1976">[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY YouTube - 1976 Hubbert Clip<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years.
== Hubbert's theory ==
===Hubbert curve===
[[Image:Hubbert-curve.png|thumb|The standard [[Hubbert curve]]. For applications, the ''x'' and ''y'' scales are replaced by time and production scales.]]
[[Image:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png|thumb| U.S. Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005]]
[[Image:Norway Hubbert.svg|thumb|Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.]]
In [[1956]], Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the [[Hubbert curve]], the derivative of the [[logistic curve]], for estimating future production using past observed discoveries.
Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves ([[oil reserves]], coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.
The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is roughly symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when about half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been produced. It also has a single peak.
Given past oil discovery and production data, a Hubbert curve may be constructed that attempts to approximate past discovery data, and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. Cavallo<ref name="cavallo">Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004 [http://www.springerlink.com/content/q363778431537157/fulltext.pdf]</ref> defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of:
:<math>
Q(t) = {Q_{{\rm max}}\over {1 + a e^{bt}}}
</math>
where <math>Q</math><sub>max</sub> is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), <math>Q(t)</math> the cumulative production, and <math>a</math> and <math>b</math> are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is:
:<math>
t_{{\rm max}} = {1\over b}\ln \left({1\over a} \right)
</math>
===Use of multiple curves===
{{Expand-section|date=June 2008}}
The sum of multiple Hubbert curves can be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios. [http://dieoff.org/page191.htm]
===Definition of reserves===
Almost all of Hubbert peaks must be put in the context of high [[ore grade]]. Except for fissionable materials, any resource, including oil, is theoretically recoverable from the environment with the right technology. A current example would be [[biofuel#Biologically produced oils|biofuel]]. However, a genetically engineered organism that produces crude oil would not invalidate Hubbert's peak for oil. His research was about the "easy" oil, "easy" metals, and so forth that can be recovered before a society considers greatly advanced mining efforts and how to time the necessity of such resource acquisition advancements or substitutions by knowing an "easy" resource's probable peak. Also, as reserves become more difficult to extract there is the possibility that mining or alternatives are too expensive for [[developing countries]].
The "easy" oil constraint also applies to "[[Abiogenic petroleum origin|abiotic oil]]", a theory believed by virtually no notable U.S. geologists, although it is believed by some Russian and Ukrainian geologists. This theory states that some oil is created through other methods than conventionally understood biogenic processes. However, in order to have any effect on Hubbert peak theory applied to oil, this other creation of oil would have to occur at a rate comparable to current [[oil depletion]], something that has not been credibly observed.
For [[heavy crude]] or deep water drilling attempts, such as [[Noxal oil field]] or [[tar sands]] or [[oil shale]], the price of the oil extracted will have to include the extra effort required to mine these resources. According to the U.S. [[Minerals Management Service]], areas such as the [[Outer Continental Shelf]] may also incur higher costs due to environmental concerns. So not all [[oil reserves]] are equal, and the more difficult reserves are predicted by Hubbert as being typical of the post-peak side of the Hubbert curve.
=== Reliability ===
[[Image:Hubbert US high.svg|right|thumb|200px|US oil production (crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate.]]
Generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1970, and this provides the greatest evidence to support the theory.
Hubbert, in his 1956 paper,<ref name="Hubbert1956"/> made two predictions for the US conventional oil production (crude oil + condensate):
* a low estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6%, an ultimate resource equals to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965.
* a high estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6% and ultimate resource equals to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.
Forty years later, the high estimate has been proven to be remarkably accurate in terms of production level and cumulative production. In 2005, the US production was 1.55 Gb with a cumulative production of 176.4 Gb (crude oil + condensate) and the Hubbert model is predicting 1.17 Gb (24% lower) and 178.2 Gb respectively.
== Economics==
[[Image:Oil imports.PNG|thumb|300px|Oil imports by country]]
===Energy return on energy investment===
When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or [[EROEI]]). Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. As the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the [[Net energy gain]] falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before the resource is physically exhausted.
Note that it is important to understand the distinction between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a [[barrel of oil equivalent]] (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using [[natural gas]] to fuel [[enhanced oil recovery]]. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most [[Athabasca Tar Sands]] plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to [[Ethanol fuel]] produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate.
===Growth-based economic models===
Insofar as [[economic growth]] is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976/]:
{{cquote|Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of nongrowth.}}
Some economists describe the problem as [[uneconomic growth]] or a [[false economy]]. At the political right, [[Fred Ikle]] has warned about "conservatives addicted to the Utopia of Perpetual Growth" [http://dieoff.org/page68.htm]. Brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 markedly slowed - but did not stop - the growth of world [[GDP]] [http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/pdf/050206.pdf].
Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] transformed [[agriculture]] around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by [[fossil fuels]] in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>[http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html How peak oil could lead to starvation]</ref>
David Pimentel, professor of ecology and [[agriculture]] at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study ''Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy'' the maximum [[U.S. population]] for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy [[world population]] will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.<ref>[http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html Eating Fossil Fuels | EnergyBulletin.net]</ref> Without population reduction, this study predicts an agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. [[2050]]. The [[Peak oil|peaking of global oil]] along with the decline in regional [[natural gas]] production may precipitate this agricultural crisis sooner than generally expected. [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] claims that coming decades could see spiraling [[food]] prices without relief and massive [[starvation]] on a global level such as never experienced before.<ref>[http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil Peak Oil: the threat to our food security]</ref><ref>[http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225 Agriculture Meets Peak Oil]</ref>
==Hubbert peaks==
Although Hubbert peak theory receives most attention in relation to [[peak oil|peak oil production]], it has also been applied to other natural resources.
===Natural gas===
{{main|Peak gas}}
While Hubbert correctly predicted peak oil timing in the United States (under his higher of two scenarios), the peak he predicted for natural gas was very far off. In 2000, U.S. natural gas production was 2.4 times higher than Hubbert had predicted in 1956 and has not produced in a fashion of the logistic curve Hubbert initially envisioned.
The North American peak happened in 2001, according to Western Gas Resources Inc; according to Doug Reynolds, the peak will have occurred in 2007 [http://www.energybulletin.net/11789.html]; according to Bentley, production will peak anywhere from 2010 to 2020.<ref>Global oil & gas depletion: an overview, R.W. Bentley, Energy Policy, 30, 189–205, 2002 [http://www.oilcrisis.com/bentley/depletionOverview.pdf]</ref>
Since [[compressed natural gas]] powered cars are already available in North America, peak oil and peak gas are related for transportation usage.
Because gas transport is a complicated operation, the global peak of gas is currently less important than the peak per continent. Due to higher gas prices [[LNG]] transportation has become economic. This leads to high investments in LNG production and transportation, which will lead to a more global gas market.
Natural gas production may have peaked on the North American continent in 2003, with the possible exception of Alaskan gas supplies which cannot be developed until a pipeline is constructed. Natural gas production in the [[North Sea]] has also peaked. UK production was at its highest point in [[2000]], and declining production and increased prices are now a sensitive political issue. Even if new extraction techniques yield additional sources of natural gas, like [[coalbed methane]], the [[EROEI|energy returned on energy invested]] will be much lower than traditional gas sources, which inevitably leads to higher costs to consumers of natural gas.
The United States accounts for 24% of world natural gas consumption [http://www.energybulletin.net/docs/EnergyTrendsUSArmySummary.pdf]. Since natural gas is the single largest feedstock used to [[Ammonia production|produce ammonia]] for [[fertilizer]]s, an increase in natural gas prices could provide upward pressure on food costs, in addition to the increase in the transportation component of food prices. Note however, that the essential element of fertilizers is [[nitrogen]] and not [[carbon]], while the energetically-limiting ingredient is [[hydrogen]]. This implies that ammonia can be [[Ammonia production#Sustainable ammonia production|synthesized using electricity]], and electricity can come from many forms of [[renewable energy]] (not necessarily [[biomass]]). Renewable ammonia will likely have a higher price, depending on the future cost of electricity from renewable sources.
If a [[hydrogen economy]] based on renewable energy ever becomes a reality, diverting some of the hydrogen to ammonia production for fertilizers would be straightforward.
Also note that while natural gas is difficult to ship between continents, shipping ammonia is much more economical. When natural gas is a feedstock for fertilizer, it is often cheaper to locate the ammonia plants near the gas wellheads, and then ship the ammonia product rather than the natural gas. However, this may threaten [[food security]] if the gas wells and the ammonia plants are both in politically unstable countries.
===Coal===
{{main|Peak coal}}
Peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, but we can observe the example of [[Anthracite coal|anthracite]] in the USA, a high grade coal whose production peaked in the 1920s. Anthracite was studied by Hubbert, and matches a curve closely.<ref>[http://www.geo.umn.edu/courses/3005/resource.html GEO 3005: Earth Resources]</ref> Pennsylvania's coal production also matches Hubbert's curve closely, but this does not mean that coal in Pennsylvania is exhausted--far from it. If production in Pennsylvania returned at its all time high, there are reserves for 190 years. Hubbert had recoverable [[Coal#World coal reserves|coal reserves worldwide]] at 2500 × 10<sup>9</sup> metric tons and peaking around [[2150]] (depending on usage).
More recent estimates suggest an earlier peak. ''Coal: Resources and Future Production'' (PDF 630KB[http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf]), published on April 5 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years [http://www.energybulletin.net/29919.html]. Reporting on this Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal will likely come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively [http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/179]. A second study,
''The Future of Coal'' by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, reaches similar conclusions and states that
""coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future".[http://www.energybulletin.net/29919.html].
Work by [[David Rutledge]] of [[Caltech]] predicts that the total of world coal production will amount to only about 450 [[gigatonne]]s.<ref name=NS>"Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff", by David Strahan, [[New Scientist]], [http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19726391.800-coal-bleak-outlook-for-the-black-stuff.html Jan. 19, 2008, pp. 38-41].
</ref> This
implies that coal is running out faster than usually assumed, or than what is assumed in calculations of [[global warming]].
Finally, insofar as global [[peak oil]] and peak in natural gas are expected anywhere from imminently to within decades at most, any increase in coal production (mining) per annum to compensate for declines in oil or NG production would necessarily translate to an earlier date of peak as compared with peak coal under a scenario in which annual production remains constant.
===Fissionable materials===
{{main|Peak uranium}}
In a paper in 1956 [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf], after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power:
{{cquote|There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may at last have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."}}
Technologies such as [[Thorium#Thorium as a nuclear fuel|thorium]], [[nuclear reprocessing|reprocessing]] and [[Fast breeder reactor|fast breeders]] can, in theory, considerably extend the life of [[uranium]] reserves. [[Roscoe Bartlett]] claims [http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/5-2-06%20Oil%20Speech.pdf]
{{cquote|Our current throwaway nuclear cycle uses up the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years.}}
Caltech physics professor [[David Goodstein]] has stated [http://www.energybulletin.net/3322.html] that
{{cquote|... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.}}
===Metals===
{{main|Peak copper}}
Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal" [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976] and reasoned that the peak production for metals such as [[copper]], [[tin]], [[lead]], [[zinc]] and others would occur in the time frame of decades and [[iron]] in the time frame of two centuries like coal. The recent jump in the price [http://www.freecharts.com/Commodities.aspx?sym=HGY0&data=H&page=chart] of copper [http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/coppemcs06.pdf] has become known among traders as [[peak copper]]. [[Lithium]] availability is a concern for a fleet of [[Li-ion battery]] using cars but a paper published in 1996 estimated that world reserves are adequate for at least 50 years [http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2530187]. A similar prediction [http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_024056-01.hcsp] for [[platinum]] use in fuel cells notes that the metal could be easily recycled.
===Phosphorus===
[[Phosphorus]] supplies are essential to farming and depletion of reserves is estimated at somewhere from 60 to 130 years [http://www.apda.pt/apda_resources/APDA.Biblioteca/eureau%5Cposition%20papers%5Cthe%20reuse%20of%20phosphorus.pdf]. Individual countries supplies vary widely; without a recycling initiative America's supply [http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/phospmcs06.pdf] is estimated around 30 years [http://www.ecosanres.org/PDF%20files/Fact_sheets/ESR4lowres.pdf]. Phosphorus supplies affect total agricultural output which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol.
===Renewable resources===
Despite the fact that, in theory, Hubbert's analysis does not apply to renewable resources, over-exploitation often results in a Hubbert peak nonetheless. The Hubbert curve seems to be applicable to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced:{{Fact|date=May 2007}}
*'''Water''': For example, a reserve such as the [[Ogallala Aquifer]] can be mined at a rate that far exceeds replenishment. This turns much of the world's underground water [http://www.uswaternews.com/archives/arcsupply/6worllarg2.html] and lakes [http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update47_data.htm] into finite resources with peak usage debates similar to oil. These debates usually center around agriculture and suburban water usage but generation of electricity [http://www.epa.gov/cleanrgy/water_resource.htm] from nuclear energy or coal and tar sands mining mentioned above is also water resource intensive. The term [[fossil water]] is sometimes used to describe older aquifers that are not considered renewables anymore.
*'''Fisheries''': At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization on the [[whaling]] industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion. [http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=34&Itemid=39] Another example is the [[cod]] of the North Sea [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/multihub.htm].
==Criticism==
Economist Michael Lynch [http://www.energyseer.com/MikeLynch.html] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is overly simplistic, and that available evidence contradicts some of the more specific predictions. [http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm] He analyzed the timing of the global peak as predicted by [[Colin Campbell (geologist)]]: initially predicted to occur in [[2000]], it was later pushed back to 2010. Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates. [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Lynch/] Throughout 2001-2003, in his monthly newsletters, Campbell maintained that his 1996 prediction of a peak in 2000 was unchallenged, but in 2004 he shifted the peak to 2010. Later, he brought the predicted peak forward to 2006, but in 2005, he again published a 2010 peak date.<ref>{{cite book | title= Oil Crisis | last= Campbell | first=CJ | year= 2005 | page= 90 | isbn= 0906522390 }} </ref>
Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI, argue that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995 [http://sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/jon/world-oil.dir/lynch/worldoil.html], based on oil production data available at that time. Maugeri claims that nearly all of these estimates do not take into account [[non-conventional oil]] even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.<ref>Maugeri, L. (2004). [http://www.condition.org/sm4602.htm Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over.] ''Science'' '''304''', 1114-1115</ref> These improvements occurred even with low investment in new [[exploration]] and upgrading [[technology]] due to the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices [http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2006/0724/042.html].
[[Edward Luttwak]], an economist and historian, argues that peak oil is a myth. He claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.<ref>[http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=18 The truth about global oil supply]</ref> The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or [[ASPO]] response to Luttwak's article is here[http://www.peakoil.net/Luttwak.html].
[[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] authored a report [http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-821_ITM] that is critical of Hubbert influenced predictions:
{{cquote|Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected.}}
[[Cambridge Energy Research Associates|CERA]] does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.<ref>[http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.html CERA says peak oil theory is faulty] [[Energy Bulletin]] Nov 14, 2006</ref><!-- <ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.html |title=CERA says peak oil theory is faulty |publisher=[[Energy Bulletin]] |date=2006-11-14 |language=English}}</ref> -->
[[ASPO]] notes [http://www.energybulletin.net/19120.html] that
{{cquote|We and CERA agree that production from existing oilfields is declining on average at about 5% per annum and this means, according to CERA, that 40 million barrels per day extra capacity is needed by 2015.}}
Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, [http://www.energybulletin.net/6271.html] does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.<ref name="cavallo"/>
==See also==
{{EnergyPortal}}
{{Portal|Sustainable development|Sustainable development.svg}}
*'''[[:Category:Peak oil]]'''
*''[[Limits to Growth]]''
*[[Hubbert curve]]
*[[Olduvai theory]]
*[[Gross domestic product per barrel]]
*[[Kuznets curve]]
*[[Low-carbon economy]]
*[[Oil crisis]]
*[[OPEC]]
*[[World energy resources and consumption]]
*[[Hirsch report]] on peak oil
==Notes==
{{reflist}}
==References==
*"Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) [http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter23_200211.pdf ASPO Newsletter #23].
*Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). [http://www-cta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/Reports/ORNL_TM_2003_259.pdf Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050] ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October
*[http://www.mafhoum.com/press7/204E14.htm Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions] (August 30, 2004). ''Middle East Economic Survey'' VOL. XLVII No 35
*Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982
{{refend}}
==External links==
'''Sites '''
* [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html U.S. Energy Information Agency Petroleum Data] * [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html U.S. Energy Information Agency Petroleum Data]
* [http://www.peakoil.net Association for the Study of Peak Oil]
* [http://www.peakoil.com PeakOil.com]
* [http://www.odac-info.org/ Oil Depletion Analysis Centre] in the [[United Kingdom]]
* [http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/ PowerSwitch] in the [[United Kingdom]]
* [http://www.energybulletin.net Energy Bulletin] Peak Oil related articles
* [http://peakoilinthenews.com/ Peak Oil in the News] Daily round-up of Peak Oil news
* [http://www.theoildrum.com/ The Oil Drum] Discussions about Energy and our Future
* [http://www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm TrendLines current Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Graph] A monthly tracking of 23 recognized estimates of URR, Peak Year & Peak Rate.
* [http://www.carbonwar.co.uk/ Carbon War]
'''Documentaries'''
* [http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html ''The Oilcrash''], 2006
'''Online videos'''
* [http://www.mkinghubbert.com/ M. King Hubbert speaking on Peak Oil in 1976]
'''Articles'''
*[http://www.crisisenergetica.org/staticpages/index.php?page=200509171321310 El mundo ante el cenit del petróleo] Fernando Bullón Miró
* M. King Hubbert, [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/science1949/ "Energy from Fossil Fuels"], ''Science'', vol. 109, pp. 103-109, [[February 4]], [[1949]]
* [http://www.technocracy.org/technocrat/Technocracy2.pdf Technocracy, Hubbert and peak oil] Article from ''The North American Technocrat''
* [http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/827 David Hughes on Canadian Oil and Gas] Transcribed interview of a Geologist with the [[Geological Survey of Canada]]. 30 December 2006.
* [http://www.oildecline.com/airways.pdf Aviation & Peak Oil] ''Airways'' Magazine article by Analyst / Economist (July 2006)
'''Reports, essays and lectures'''
* [http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625 Doctoral thesis about Peak Oil]
* [http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.php3?article=1025&toppic=kategori11&language=uk&category=11/ Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future] The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet)
* [http://www.technocracy.org/articles/hub-gro.html M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth]
* [http://www.gasandoil.com/peakoil Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004]
* [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/blanchard/ Graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions]
*[http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309101433/html/3.html Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options]: A Summary Report of the Workshop (2006), [[United States National Research Council|National Research Council]]
*[http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The%20End%20of%20Oil%20essay%201.pdf The End of Oil, essay 1.pdf], Very concise peak-oil study by Bob Lloyd, July 2005
*[http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444 Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate]
{{Peak oil}}
[[Category:Economic theories]]
[[Category:Futurology]]
[[Category:Peak oil]]
[[Category:Petroleum politics]]
[[Category:Sustainability]]
[[Category:Environmental economics]]
[[da:Hubberts peak]]
[[es:Teoría del pico de Hubbert]]
[[eo:Pinto de Hubbert]]
[[fr:Pic de Hubbert]]
[[hr:Hubbertova teorija vrhunca]]
[[id:Teori puncak Hubert]]
[[it:Picco di Hubbert]]
[[he:שיא תפוקת הנפט]]
[[nl:Hubberts Peak]]
[[ja:石油ピーク]]
[[ru:Пик нефти]]
[[zh:哈伯特顶点]]