Recession
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226168224
2008-07-17T03:27:31Z
Chakreshsinghai
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period
{{globalize/USA}}
In [[macroeconomics]], a '''recession''' is generally associated with a decline in a country's real [[gross domestic product]] (GDP), or negative real [[economic growth]]. According to widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year.
== Attributes of recessions ==
A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices ([[deflation]]), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices ([[inflation]]) in a process known as [[stagflation]]. A severe or long recession is referred to as an '''economic depression'''. Although the distinction between a recession and a depression is not clearly defined, it is often said that a decline in GDP of more than 10% constitutes a depression.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/depressions_2.htm |title=Recession? Depression? What's the difference between a recession and a depression?<!-- Bot generated title -->}}</ref> A devastating breakdown of an economy (essentially, a severe depression, or [[hyperinflation]], depending on the circumstances) is called [[economic collapse]].
==Predictors of a recession==
There are no totally reliable predictors. These are regarded to be possible predictors.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/003465398557320?cookieSet=1 |title=Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators |author=A Estrella, FS Mishkin |publishdate=1995 |publisher=MIT Press}}
</ref>
* Stock market drops have preceded the beginning of recessions. However about half of the drops of 10% or more since 1946 have not resulted in recessions.<ref>Jeremy Siegel, [[Stocks for the Long Run]]</ref> Also, approximately half of the stock market decline came after the beginning of recessions.
* [[Inverted yield curve]],<ref>[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116821099838669658.html?mod=mostpop Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve] By Michael Hudson</ref> the model developed by Fed economist Jonathan Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is, however, not a definite indicator;<ref>[http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0801rose.html Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting]</ref> it is sometimes followed by a recession 6 to 18 months later.
* The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims.<ref>[http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/01/28/labor-model-predicts-lower-recession-odds/ Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds]</ref>
* [[Index of Leading Indicators|Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators]] (includes some of the above indicators).<ref>[http://seekingalpha.com/article/60871-leading-economic-indicators-suggest-u-s-in-recession Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession] January 21, 2008</ref>
==Responding to a recession==
Strategies for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. While [[Keynesian]] economists may advocate [[deficit spending]] by the government to spark economic growth, [[supply-side]] economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business [[capital (economics)|capital]] investment. [[Laissez-faire#Economic_theory|laissez-faire]] economists may simply recommend the government remain "hands off" and not interfere with natural market forces.
Both government and business have responses to recessions. In the Philadelphia Business Journal, Strategic Business adviser [[Carter Schelling]] has discussed precautions businesses take to prepare for looming recession, likening it to fire drill. First, he suggests that business owners gauge customers' ability to resist recession and redesign customer offerings accordingly. He goes on to suggest they use lean principles, replace unhappy workers with those more motivated, eager and highly competitive. Also over-communicate. "Companies," he says, "get better at what they do during bad times." He calls his program the "Recession Drill." <ref>[http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2008/02/04/smallb3.html?t=printable]</ref>
==Central bank response==
Usually, central banks respond to recessions by easing monetary conditions, e.g. lowering interest rates. In the United States, the [[Federal Reserve]] has responded to potential slow downs by lowering the '''target [[Federal funds rate]]''' during recessions and other periods of lower growth. In fact, the Federal Reserve's lowering has even predated recent recessions<ref>[http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html Historical Changes of the Target Federal Funds and Discount Rates]</ref>. The charts below show the impact on the [[S&P500]] and short and long term interest rates.
* July 13, 1990-September 4, 1992: 8.00% to 3.00% (Includes 1990-1991 recession) <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1990-06-12&en=1992-10-04&id=p73709284643 rate drop chart]</ref> <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1992-08-04&en=1995-03-01&id=p17832984723 rate rise chart]</ref>
* February 1, 1995-November 17, 1998: 6.00 - 4.75 <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1995-01-01&en=1997-01-01&id=p46263109672 rate drop chart1]</ref> <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1996-12-01&en=1998-10-17&id=p57529441624 rate drop chart2]</ref> <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1998-09-17&en=2000-06-16&id=p08954335520 rate rise chart]</ref>
* May 16, 2000-June 25, 2003: 6.50- 1.00 (Includes 2001 recession) <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2000-04-16&en=2002-01-01&id=p71767151202 rate drop chart1]</ref> <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2002-01-01&en=2003-07-25&id=p76591879638 rate drop chart2]</ref> <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2003-06-25&en=2006-06-29&id=p75582346317 rate rise chart]</ref>
* June 29, 2006- (Mar. 18 2008): 5.25-2.25 <ref>[http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2006-06-29&en=2008-06-01&id=p60366250738 rate drop chart]</ref>
Siegel<ref>Stocks for the Long Run, J. Siegel, 2002</ref> points out that cuts in the [[Federal funds rate]] are now widely anticipated; thus, cuts are no longer followed by a longer-term rise in stock market indexes.
The declining frequency of recessions in the past two decades and the reduction in declines in GDP suggest that the Federal Reserve has been successful in moderating contractions. However some critics argue that reducing the [[Federal funds rate]] has had the effect of adding too much liquidity to the financial markets and excess debt accumulation by consumers.
==Stock market and recessions==
Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In [[Stocks for the Long Run]], Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months). It should be noted that ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the [[DJIA]] were not followed by a recession<ref>Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002). Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. ISBN 9780071370486</ref>.
The [[real-estate]] market also usually weakens before a recession<ref>[http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/investingeconomicslowdown/ Housing Has A Strong Correlation To Stocks] Chris Ciovacco, September 19, 2006</ref>. However [[real-estate]] declines can last much longer than recessions.
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the NBER takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/10/AR2007121001589.html Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions] by Allan Sloan, December 11, 2007</ref>.
During an economic decline, [[high yield stocks]] such as financial services, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco tend to hold up better<ref>[http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/05/news/economy/recession_invest.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008020603 Recession? Where to put your money now.] Shawn Tully, February 6 2008</ref>. However when the economy starts to recover and the bottom of the market has passed (sometimes identified on charts as a [[MACD]] <ref>[http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&compsyms=xlu%2Cge&CB=1&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=3&C5D=1&C6=2001&C7=11&C7D=30&C8=2001&C9=-1&CF=2&D7=&D6=&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&symbol=%24COMPX&nocookie=1&SZ=0 crossover]</ref>), [[growth stocks]] tend to recover faster. There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover<ref>[http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/28/ibm-hpq-recession-pf-ii_jl_0128money_inl.html Rethinking Recession-Proof Stocks]
Joshua Lipton 01.28.08</ref>. Diversifying one's portfolio into international stocks may provide some safety; however, economies that are closely correlated with that of the [[U.S.A.]] may also be affected by a recession in the [[U.S.A.]]<ref>[http://seekingalpha.com/article/60656-recession-stock-picks-from-morgan-stanley-s-douglas-cohen Recession Stock Picks]Douglas Cohen, January 18, 2008</ref>.
==History of recessions in the United States==
According to economists,<ref>[http://www.nber.org/cycles/ Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> since 1854, the [[U.S.A.]] has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. However, they have been shorter and much less common in recent years. Since 1980, there have been only seven recessions (see charts to see how stocks did in these periods). The charts show the impact on stock market indices.
* January-July 1980: 6 months <ref>[http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=%24util%2Cge%2Cc&CB=1&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=1&C5D=1&C6=1980&C7=7&C7D=30&C8=1980&C9=-1&CF=2&DB=1&DC=1&D7=&D6=&symbol=%24COMPX&nocookie=1&SZ=0 chart] (worst quarter GDP Growth -7.8% [http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls spreadsheet])</ref>
* July 1981-November 1982: 16 months <ref>[http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=%24util%2Cge%2Cc&CB=1&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=7&C5D=1&C6=1981&C7=11&C7D=30&C8=1982&C9=-1&CF=2&DB=1&DC=1&D7=&D6=&symbol=%24COMPX&nocookie=1&SZ=0 chart] (worst quarter GDP Growth -6.4%)</ref>
* July 1990-March 1991: 8 months <ref>[http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=%24util%2Cge%2Cc&CB=1&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=7&C5D=1&C6=1990&C7=3&C7D=30&C8=1991&C9=-1&CF=2&D7=&D6=&symbol=%24COMPX&nocookie=1&SZ=0 chart] (worst quarter GDP Growth -3.0%)</ref>
* November 2001-November 2002: 12 months <ref>[http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=7&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=%24util%2Cge%2Cc&CB=1&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&CP=1&C5=3&C5D=1&C6=2001&C7=11&C7D=30&C8=2001&C9=-1&CF=2&D7=&D6=&symbol=%24COMPX&nocookie=1&SZ=0 chart] (worst quarter GDP Growth -1.4%)</ref>
During March 1991 to November 2000, the [[U.S.A.]] experienced the longest [[economic expansion]] - 116 months, dipping into a true recession in the final months of the Clinton presidency.
For the past four recessions, the NBER decision has approximately confirmed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. However the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.
==Global recessions==
There is no commonly accepted definition of a [[global recession]].<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2002/040502.htm The Recession that Almost Was.] Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, April 5, 2002</ref> The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between 8 and 10 years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.
Economists at the International Monetary Fund say that a global recession would take a slowdown in global growth to three percent or less. By this measure, three periods since 1985 qualify: 1990-1993, 1998 and 2001-2002.<ref>[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arlKrFbn3pfY&refer=home Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. `Damage' Spreads] </ref> [[International Monetary Fund]] has recently lowered its 2008 global growth projection from 4.9 percent to 4.1 percent (as measured in terms of [[purchasing power parity]]).<ref>[http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080224/COLUMNS03/802240303/1003/business World affected by U.S. economy]</ref>
There is significant speculation about a possible [[U.S.A.]] recession in 2008. If it happens, it is expected to have a global impact.<ref>[http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/21/news/economy/recession_global_dimensions.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008012213 A recession of global dimensions?]January 22 2008</ref><ref>[http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/08/24/afx4050712.htmlMarkets indicating 20 percent chance of global recession in 2008] - UBS 08.24.07</ref><ref>[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3352594.ece IMF chief warns of worldwide impact of American slowdown] February 12, 2008</ref> U.S. represents about 21 percent of the global economy. Impact of a U.S. recession can spread though the following:<ref>[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arlKrFbn3pfY&refer=home Bloomberg.com: Worldwide<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
*Less spending by American consumers and companies reduces demand for imports.
*The crisis of the U.S. [[Subprime lending|subprime-mortgage]] market has pushed up credit costs worldwide and forced European and Asian banks to write down billions of dollars in holdings.
*Dropping U.S. stock prices drag down markets elsewhere.
==Possibility of a 2008 recession in some countries==
{{further|[[Economic crisis of 2008]]}}
<!-- Section "Possibility of a 2007-2008 recession" -->
Since 2007, there had been speculation of a possible recession starting in late 2007 or early 2008 in some countries.
=== United States ===
The [[United States housing market correction]] (a consequence of [[United States housing bubble]]) and [[subprime mortgage crisis]] had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession.
While some economists were confident about a recession<ref>[http://recession.org/library/where-is-the-economy-going Fifteen key economists, policymakers and strategists weigh in on 2008's volatility and economic turmoil.]</ref>, others were not as easily convinced.<ref>[http://www.thestreet.com/s/eight-reasons-there-wont-be-a-recession/newsanalysis/investing/10405444.html?puc=googlefi Eight Reasons There Won't Be a Recession] 02/28/08</ref> While some believed that the current slowdown would at best be a mild and brief recession,<ref>[http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/02/21/afx4682807.html Global Insight believes U.S. in early stage of 'mild and short recession']
02.21.08</ref> there was always an anticipation that the economy may start recovering in the later part of 2008.<ref>[http://daily.stanford.edu/article/2008/2/27/profsExamineEconomicDecline Profs. examine economic decline] February 27, 2008</ref>
The 2008 performance of the U.S. economy is difficult to predict due to the declining house prices and the subprime crisis, the full impact of which is still unclear.
U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years, supporting the view that the U.S. may fall into a recession. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month predicted the GDP growth will slow to 0.1 percent in January to March.
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." However Anatole Kaletsky has argued that recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months<ref>[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3694545.ece?openComment=true Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months]</ref>.
On April 29, 2008, several US states are declared by [[Moody’s]] to be in a recession, they are as follows: Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Tennessee, California, Nevada and Arizona.
<ref>{{cite news
| last = Peoples
| first = Steve
| coauthors =
| title = Analysts say R.I. economy in recession
| work =
| pages =
| language = English
| publisher = Providence Journal
| date = 29 April 2008
| url = http://www.projo.com/news/content/REVENUE_ESTIMATING_04-29-08_BI9UGUU_v30.39ce28c.html
| accessdate = 2008-04-30}}
</ref>
The US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, <ref>[http://www.clevelandfed.org/research//trends/2008/0608/01ecoact.cfm,]</ref> <ref>[http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/economy.html?.v=14]</ref> meaning that the US does not meet the widely accepted definition of a recession. However some economists believe in a different definition of recession that suggests that the US is already in one.<ref>{{cite news
| last = AVERSA
| first = JEANNINE
| coauthors =
| title = Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in first quarter
| work = Economics
| pages =
| language = English
| publisher = AP
| date = 30 April 2008
| url = http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_26
| accessdate = 2008-04-30}}
</ref><ref>{{cite news
| last = AVERSA
| first = JEANNINE
| coauthors =
| title = Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in first quarter
| work = Economics
| pages =
| language = English
| publisher = AP
| date = 30 April 2008
| url = http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_75;_ylt=AkzJxjBhim55EOLKhoPsBU3qxQcB
| accessdate = 2008-04-30}}
</ref>
In February 2008, [[Nouriel Roubini]] suggested a harsh 12-step scenario.<ref>http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080228/REG/346385380/1036 NYU professor predicting a whale of a bear market, February 28, 2008</ref>. Some of the events he predicted have actually occurred.
#U.S. home prices will fall between 20% and 30% from their peak. [http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/03/08/business/20080308_ECON_SIGNS_OF_TROU.jpg NYTimes chart]
#Losses to the financial system from the subprime disaster, as high as $300 billion, are now spreading to near-prime and prime mortgages.
#The recession will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt.
#Monoline insurance companies will take losses on their insurance of residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities products, which are much higher than the $10 billion-to-$15 billion rescue package that regulators are trying to arrange.
#The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one.
#Some large regional or even national banks that are very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, may go bankrupt. ([[Bear Stearns]] Companies, Inc. collapsed on March 16, 2008, and was bought out by [[JP Morgan Chase]].)
#Banks' losses will grow as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans on their balance sheets at values well below par, currently about 90 cents on the dollar.
#Once a severe recession starts, a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. Typically U.S. corporate default rates are about 3.8% (1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a rather low 0.6%. And in a typical U.S. recession such default rates surge above 10%.
#The “[[shadow banking system]]” (as defined by Pimco, it is composed by non-bank financial institutions that borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets), will soon get into serious trouble.
#Stock markets in the U.S. and overseas will start pricing in a severe U.S. recession and a sharp global economic slowdown.
#The credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a drying up of liquidity in several financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets.
#A vicious cycle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue, leading to further credit contraction.
=== Other countries ===
A few other countries have seen some recent GDP decrease, generally attributed as an incidence of the US slowdown, such as [[Ireland]] and [[Denmark]].
==Recession and politics==
Generally an administration gets credit or blame for the state of economy during its time.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7215351.stm Economy puts Republicans at risk] 29 January 2008</ref> This has caused disagreements about when a recession actually started.<ref>[http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2003/fs_bushrecession073103.pdf The Bush Recession] Prepared by: Democrat staff, Senate Budget Committee,July 31, 2003</ref>
In an economic cycle, a downturn can be considered a consequence of an expansion reaching an unsustainable state, and is corrected by a brief decline. Thus it is not easy to isolate the causes of specific phases of the cycle.
The 1981 recession is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by [[Paul Volcker]], chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, before [[Ronald Reagan]] took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist [[Walter Heller]], chairman of the [[Council of Economic Advisers]] in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession.<ref>[http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,922689-2,00.html Ready for a Real Downer] Monday, Nov. 23, 1981 By GEORGE J. CHURCH</ref> The resulting taming of inflation, did, however, set the stage for a robust growth period during Reagan's administration.
==See also==
*[[List of recessions in the United States]] - A list of important recessions in the United States
*[[Great Depression]] - August 1929 to March 1933: longest recession of the 20th century
*[[Age wave]] theory - Consequence of [[baby boomers]] retiring.
*[[Oil crisis]] - Global oil crises
===Causes of recessions===
*[[Speculation]]
*[[Currency crisis|Currency crises]]
*[[Inflation]]
*[[National debt]]
*[[War]]
===Effects of recessions===
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Foreclosure]]s
*[[Bankrupt]]cies
*[[Stock market crash]]
*Reduced sales
*Banks lend less money
*[[Deflation]]
==References==
{{reflist|2}}
== Further reading ==
*[http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2004/mussa/pdf/aliber.pdf The Thirty-Five Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks and Financial Trauma, by Robert Aliber. Presented at the IMF]
*[http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9029987/depression Encyclopedia Britannica, Depression]
*[http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/depressions.htm Recession? Depression? What's the difference? (About.com)]
==External links==
*[http://www.nber.org/cycles.html Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, the National Bureau Of Economic Research]
*[http://www.aier.org/research/ Independent Analysis of Business Cycle Conditions] - [http://www.aier.org/ American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)]
*[http://recession.org/library Recession Library] - [http://recession.org/ US Economic Recession History News and Videos]
[[Category:Recessions]]
[[Category:Macroeconomics]]
[[Category:Market trends]]
[[Category:Business cycle]]
[[Category:Economic problems]]
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